Study On The Positioning And Trend Of Gold In The Changing Global Economy System

The global financial crisis in 2007 had cut off the up-growing bypass of major resource commodities such as oil, iron ore, etc. While the gold price has hiked on the opposite direction till now from $600 per ounce to surpassing $1500 this year. The outstanding identity of gold in the resource categories and multi-function in crisis period is deserved being further probed into.The special attributes and function of gold determine its international positioning and role. Focusing on its monetary attribute and integrating its commodity and investment attributes, the pater studies the constitute and operation rules of global gold system in detail. The major conclusion is as follows:(1). The historic relation of gold consumption per capital in major countries such as the USA., Great Britain, Germany, France, Japan, South Kerea, India, China, Brazil, etc. with GDP per capital displayed the inverse"U"rule samilar to traditional resource commodities, with distinct infexion and strong decline after it.(2) The ratio of gold procution to global GDP (in 1990 GK dollar) from 1900 showed stagged declines and the future trend of it will go on till towards zero. The result testifies the positioning in the future international monetary system and the challenge currently faced the monitary attribute of gold.(3) The international gold reserve embodies the monetary attribute. From 1948 till now, the volume of the total gold reserve of the world has maintained at about 30 thousand tons, with 23 thousand tons belong to developed countries, above 80%. Developing countries such as China, India, Rusia and Iran are increasing their gold reserves.(4) The investment attribute of gold has appeared after its monetary attribute deprived. The investment gold has increase sharply these years and occupied nearly one third in 2010. The investment volume of gold will enhanced and gold's investment attribute will be strengthened in future.(5) The pricing mechanism of gold is more complicated than other resources with major enfluencial forces from international politics, international economy, international finance to international investment. Only when these four superstratum factors are invalid, the traditional normal pricing mechanism under cost, benefit, supply and demand factors will come into force. The current gold price is entering a new round of climbing circle and will continue the trend in the near future.