The Research Of Forensics Support System Oriented To Command Decision-making

Intelligence decision-making is an indispensable key step for high level command decision-making. Traditional intelligence decision-making often pays attention to subjectively estimate the probability of each hypothesis holding, but it does't put an emphasis on the forensic analysis of each hypothesis. Having been affected by the command system and former successful experiences, commanders and intelligence professionals easily come into being some mindsets, which are often used to make military cheats by the adversary. Therefore,there are some weaknesses in the traditional method of intelligence decision-making. In order to eliminate the negative influences brought by the mindsets and other factors, and simultaneity keep away the military cheats made by the adversary, it is necessary that makes a rational and systemic analysis on the forming of the hypothesis set, the cognition and judgement of each hypothesis, and the mechanism of command decision-making to achieve the goal of decreasing errors and reducing the risk. Thus, this thesis probes into the dynamic forensic problems of the hypothesis set. The structure, function and optimal design of the forensics support system oriented to command decision-making(FSSOC)are put forward and studied. Moreover, the problems on realizing optimal running and services of FSSOC are discussed.FSSOC is a special military intelligence system, which is an integrative entity made up of people, equipment, intelligence processing, command decision-making problem, allowable time limit and other systemic objects. It is a man-machine system that serves high level intelligence decision-making, in which man plays dominative role. This system runs round the mission of command decision-making under definite time limit. The circular entity comprises intelligence collection, intelligence pretreatment, intelligence analysis and the intelligence report'production and delivery etc. So, the optimal design on FSSOC and all factors of the circular entity constitute main contents of this paper.Concerning intelligence collection, to make sure intelligence requirement is the key of gathering intelligence data. A basic method of determining intelligence requirement is put forward by means of introducing the mechanism of case-based reasoning. Under the traction of the intelligence requirement, gathering intelligence on the one hand derives from inner data-mining, on the ther hand derives from external collection. Therefor, a intelligence retrieval arithmetic based on relational database is brought forward. According to the commander's preference information, this arithmetic can effectively retrieve the intelligence data in which the commander is interested, and automatically reorder retrieved intelligence data, so it is an intelligent arithmetic. Furthermore, the methods and means of gathering intelligence from external circumstance are discussed.Intelligence pretreatment is an important step that avoids the disturbing of out-of-order information or cheating information and effectively utilizes intelligence to serve command decision-making. The foundation of intelligence pretreatment is to estimate intelligence data. Therefore, we study the method that multi-person estimate multi-attribute of intelligence data. On this foundation, the intelligence filter methods based on rule reasoning and fuzzy preference information are presented. The two methods suit to roughly select and subtly select intelligence data respectively. It is effective that combines the two kinds of filter methods to make military intelligence data classified.Intelligence analysis is the key that makes intelligence decision-making success or failure. In this thesis, we put emphasis on the problems related to intelligence analysis. Intelligence cognition is the core of intelligence analysis, and that hypothesis cognition is the key of intelligence cognition. On the foundation of general process of intelligence cognition being discussed, we investigate the reasoning mode of identifying hypothesis, present a general frame of identifying hypothesis by using default consequence relations and multiple-value logic, and build a model that can synthesizes fuzzy judgement information given by multi-persons to recognize hypothesis. A factual example indicate that the model of identifying hypothesis is feasible and effective. Moreover,aiming at the survival hypothesis set via final recognition, we also put forward two kinds of methods of selecting the most likely hypothesis, one bases on D-S evidence theory, the other bases on linguistic decision analysis. The two kinds of methods can mutually be repaired. Moreover, the problems related to producing and delivering intelligence report based on the most likely hypothesis are simply discussed.In optimal design of FSSOC, this thesis investigates how to build a concise and high-efficiency intelligence network according to the tenet of obtaining the better effect of intelligence decision-making at the cost of consuming less time, analyzes the problems involved in FSSOC's constitution, structure,run condition, process of transferring information and selecting software platform etc. By designing the structure of the military decision-making case database and presenting a similar search arithmetic, we make case-based reasoning between FSSOC and the military decision-making support system(MDSS)united. Having considered the demand of collective analysis to identify hypothesis, we detailedly discuss the synthesis and revising of intelligence agents collaborative decision- making, put emphasis study on the problems that selecte the hard evidence set ( HES ) , determine HES and revise HES, and bring forward the corresponding processing methods and steps. In addition, this thesis bases the veracity of the judgement information given by intelligence agent to present a revising method of its reliability on each hypothesis, which supplys a referenced basis for selecting suitable intelligence agent to make collaborative decision-making in succedent stages.Lastly, the summarization and expectation of this thesis is made, some problems that need to be further researched are brought forward.