Study On The Capability Of Agricultural Sustainable Development And Strategies In Taihang Mountain Areas Of Hebei Province

Mountanic agriculture is the important component of regional agriculture in China, which is the foundation of the social and economic sustainable development in mountain areas. Agriculture development of the Taihang Mountain areas in Hebei province (THMAHB) is still under a status of environmental destroying together with a low economic growth rate. The unique location of economics and geography brings up an urgent demand of agriculture sustainability. This dissertation is mainly aimed at valuing and analyzing the capability of agriculture sustainabile development (CASD) of this area, by expert investigation, contrasting and analyzing the existing literatures.We had put forward a system which is composed of five sub-systems (population, economy, society, resource and environment), which includes 31 index lines totally, to evaluate the CASD of the area, quantitative models were used to assess the CASD of this area and to evaluate the typical counties. The results are as follows:(1) The results of the CASD in THMAHB show that:From 1995 to 2003, the evaluating value of CASD in THMAHB (A) goes up slowly, the average growth rate of total evaluating value is 3.07 percent, which reveals the agriculture development is sustainable for the last ten years. We separate the ten years into three phases by its developmental progress: (D 1995-1998: a period of fast development. ? The period of 1998-2000 might be wave-convalescence. (3) The average rate grew steadily from 2000-2003. In general, the growth rate in THMAHB is lower than Hebei province, which dues to the development speed of economic subsystems of Hebei province better than the one of Taihang Mountain area.The evaluating value of CASD in THMAHB is closely bound up with population (B₁), economics (B₂), and society (B₃) sub-system as well, the correlation coefficients (CC) are 0.9861, 0.9207 and 0.9768 correspondingly. Meanwhile, the CC between the evaluating value of CASD in THMAHB and roesurce sub-system is -0.6498, which suggests the minus correlation between them, and the relationships between B₁, B₂, B₃ and B₄ are also minus correlations. We can say from the relationship between them that the agricultural development is increasingly expending the natural resources. In future, the development of population, economics and society would face the severe limit of natural resource.(2) The results of different counties in THMAHB show that:From the evaluating results of 25 counties in THMAHB, we can get that the CASD is increasing and the growth rates are different respectively. Based on the annual growth rate of the evaluating value of CASD, we can conclude three types (highest, secondary and lowest) growth rate of CASD in 25 counties. The average value of CASD is 1.5183 and its annual growth rate is 9.43 percent in the counties of highest growth rate of CASD. In the counties of secondary growth rate of CASD, the average value of CASD is 1.3111 and its annual growth rate is 5.60 percent The average value of CASD is 1.1216 and its annual growth rate is 3.20 percent in the counties of lowest growth rate ofCASD.Totally, the development of population, economics, and society sub-system of the counties of highest growth rate of CASD is synchronous. And the development is harmony with the environment and natural resource, though the development hardly imposes on natural resource. The development speed is slowly of the counties of lowest growth rate of CASD, and the efficiency of resource-use is low which put high press on ecological environment. In a word, to achieve the continuously growth of CASD, it need harmonious development among the population, economic, society, resource and environment sub-system.From the results of the evaluating on CASD in THMAHB, three strategies were putted forward to safeguard the agriculture sustainable development. Those are strategy of protecting the ecological environment, strategy of upgrading the economic level and the strategy of advancing the society development harmoniously. To bring the three strategies into effect, it needs developing...