China's 2020 Carbon Emissions Intensity Of Their Goals

Along with climate issues have become increasingly prominent, in December 2009, China announced to the world of the "carbon intensity by 2020 emission reduction targets," then, the emissions of greenhouse gases become the focus of energy saving work. So far, China's economic development is faced with energy and carbon emissions, the dual constraints. How to soft the constraints of China's economic, energy, environment, coordinated development of China over the next decade challenge. However, China did not simply get rid of the current extensive path of development, the transformation of economic growth, optimizing industrial structure, improving energy efficiency, China will continue to face important issues. How the Carbon intensity in 2020 constrains, learned from the "eleven five plan" emission reduction experience, to fully tap the potential of energy conservation in key industries to develop affordable energy-saving policies to achieve China's goal of industrialization and modernization, it is very significance. Therefore, this article try to find the reasonable path of completing carbon emission reduction targets by 2020, as constraints, through technological upgrading and industrial structure upgrade, to design appropriate policy scenarios. For the steel industry and power industries, it will analysis the potential of industrial structure update scenario and the technical scenario and through comparative analysis, develop the optimization of the steel industry scenario.This study will commence in the following areas: (1) scenario analysis for the selection of analysis tools, configuration scenario model established in 2020, the use of CGE model extrapolation generate the baseline scenario; (2) to reduce emissions 40% -45% objectives, design the 2020 scenarios from the view of industril point;(3) analysis of various policy scenarios, iron and steel industry, power industry, the feasibility of situational constraints; (4) designed for the steel industry and power industry's Bottom-up model, utilize the idea of MCP to bridge with the Top-down model into a mixed complementarity model (MCP model) to simulate the "Eleventh Five-Year" period of the 'big pressure on the small' contribution to the impact of energy conservation, and through design " second Five-Year "program to reduce emissions, estimated"Twelfth five" target to achieve potential.This paper draws the following conclusions: (1) there is no upgrading of industrial structure, improve the way technology alone is unable to complete the carbon intensity target in 2020, the "Eleventh Five-Year" period industry the possibility of a sharp decline in energy intensity will be less and less. (2) by MCP simulation, the "Eleventh Five-Year" period, the steel industry's "big pressure on the small" out of a small steel-making capacity of the steel industry contributed 28.69% energy saving technology, and out of small thermal power technology to the power industry contribution to energy conservation 24.20%. (3) the policy of eliminating backward production capacity will play an important role in achieving emission reduction targets in the "Twelfth five". Policy scenario, designed by " Twelfth five" out of solution, simulation results show that the steel industry can achieve the goal of technology scenarios and the industrial structure 52.25% 82.92% scenario in the power industry to achieve the corresponding 25.72% and 63.16%. (4) 'Twelfth five' plan to complete the target carbon intensity targets 2020 completion is very important.