China's 2020 Carbon Reduction Commitment To Achieving The Research

With the increasing emergency of the natural disasters and extreme weather, the climate issue has become a major concern. for the international community。Global warming is also much more blamed to be the reason for the abnormal climate。With scientists continuing to explore the real reason for global warming, the international community began to set out dealing with the climate issue under the "no regret" principle from the eighties and nineties of the 20th century. While due to the uncertainty and complexity of the climate issue, the diversity of interests among countries, the international action on climate issues processes slowly。During the consistent negotiation process and with the historical responsibility for greenhouse gas emissions from those developed countries being clarifies, the affair for the developing countries to reduce emissions has also been put on the international agenda。"Kyoto Protocol" is going to come to an end in the year of 2012 and the international community in Copenhagen, Denmark called on the Assembly of the United Nations Climate Change Committee members to discuss the post-Kyoto international emissions problems in December,2009. At Copenhagen conference, China, as the largest developing country, whose carbon dioxide emissions volume has surpassed the United States'and thus becomes the world's largest emitter according to relevant statistics, became the focus of attention。Chinese President Hu Jintao solemnly pledged at the meeting that by 2020, China's carbon emissions intensity would decrease by 40%-45% than 2005. This commitment was a manifestation of being active to assume international obligation from a real big responsible country and also made the according contribution to promoting the process of Copenhagen conference, which got the unanimously endorsement from the international community. However, China has the largest population in the world and its energy structure is mainly based on coal. Meanwhile, China is undergoing a rapid development of industrialization and urbanization, and its carbon dioxide emissions is in a high-speed growth period。With the heavy pressure of carbon dioxide emissions, the study on "Can China successfully fulfill its emission reduction commitment, how much pressure is it going to undertake, how to mobilize the active participation of different provinces to reduce the emissions and thus complete the commitment, what is the disposable emissions volume at the time of completion has undoubtedly great practical and guiding significance.The first part of this study analyses the background of our commitment to emission reduction, elaborates on the international pressure and domestic situations that China is facing, and also describes the significance of the reduction commitments. This part at the same time briefly describes the prediction of our country's carbon emissions methods and possible innovations by constructing scenarios matrixThe second part reviewed the relevant measurement and study of the relationship between carbon dioxide and economic development, briefing on the carbon emissions intensity, decoupling evaluation indicators and environmental Kuznets curve. By implementing the contrast analysis of the environmental Kuznets curve, OECD's decoupling model and Tapio decoupling model, it tells us more about the judgement standard and application of Tapio decoupling model, and meanwhile reviews the latest research on international decoupling indicators. Then, this section also reviews some major international abatement options at present, compares the two major abatement proposals based on the control level and the quota allocation, thus giving a further illustration on the theoretical basis and application of the emission reduction program.The third part predicts whether China can achieve the targets of emission reduction by 2020 through constructing a scenario matrix of our country's future economic development and a decoupling state based on a historical and scenario analysis. Firstly,this part applies the IPCC (2006)-recommended method to calculate the carbon dioxide emissions since the reform and opening up of China in1978. Combined with Tapio decoupling indicators, it cards the relationship between the economic growth since reform and opening up and carbon dioxide emissions, thus summarizing and predicting three scenarios of China's economic growth and decoupling relationship by 2020. Secondly, through the study on literature review, it selects the predictive analysis of China's economic development from those authoritative economists and forms three scenarios of economic growth by 2020. And finally it comes to the scene matrix construction. By using the decoupling equation and the calculation of the carbon intensity formality, it forecasts whether China could achieve emission reduction commitment in 2020.The fourth sub-study firstly calculates the absolute carbon dioxide emissions on commitment in 2020. By borrowing from the international community's quota allocation scheme, under the principle of equity in the distribution, based on a hereditary system, the principle of equality and the principle of capacity to pay, China is going to complete absolute emission reduction allocation among different provinces under the commitment. It describes the difference of the amount of emission reduction among different provinces under three different distribution principles. Then, it predicts the demand of carbon emissions of different provinces in 2020 based on the common occasions, and by comparing the quota situation under the principle of equality and the capacity to pay, it analyses the reasons for difference and comes up with the distribution principle which adapts to our country's real situation. Part V here makes a proposal on completing the commitment and the distribution of quotation. Upon completion of commitments, combined with the existing researches, the articles thinks that by actively promoting the study on low-carbon economy, improving the energy efficiency, upgrading the industrial structure and developing low-carbon finance, we can promote completion of emission reduction commitment. Under the promised allocation quota, we should speed up the defined initial emission quotas, give attention to distribution of fairness and efficiency, actively establish and improve the emissions trading market in China, and promote the completion of emission reduction commitment. Also through the development of trading market, we should allocate rationally the emission quotas, better promote the balance among regions to achieve the balanced development in the emission reduction.Finally, the article makes a summary of this whole study.