TPP’s Investment Location Domino Effect And Non-TPP Asia-pacific Countries’ Countermeasures

With the United States proudly entrying into the TPP in 2009, it has 12 Asia Pacific countries by now and reaches an agreement on October 5, 2015. The reflection of active participation and leading the process of TPP, it is obvious that, in order to meet the demands of the interests of the developed countries, WTO as the representative of the first generation of international trade and investment rules has to be improved. The fact that the formation of TPP has become the representative of the second generation of international trade and investment rules, which will bring a huge impact for regional economic cooperation and invest patter in the Asia Pacific region.Therefore, Under the background of TPP, these issues become the focus of attention,such as Asia Pacific production network, the spatial distribution and influence degree of direct investment location, coping strategies of non TPP Asia Pacific countries and so on.This dissertation summarizes the TPP relevant research literature from below three views: TPP and American Asian and Pacific strategy, effect of TPP on the economy in the Asia Pacific region, Asia Pacific countries coping with the TPP policy.Also, it determines the method and direction of TPP investment location domino effect based on reviewing regional economic integration investment location domino effect research methods at home and abroad. Then, considering the fact of TPP impacting on the Asia Pacific region direct investment and production networks,especially the East Asian production networks. The article studies the spatial distribution and influence degree of direct investment location, moreover, it puts forward suggestions for non TPP Asia Pacific countries dealing with TPP investment effect. By theoretical analysis and empirical research, this dissertation’s main findings are:(1) Asia Pacific direct investment location spatial distribution under TPP shows the following characteristics: Firstly, TPP led by American will change in the Asia Pacific region direct investment production spatial distribution. It will reduce non TPP countries’ industrial market share and also appear core-periphery structure. In thefuture, it is helpful for TPP menbers with larger domestic market share. Secondly, it has spatial correlation for the countries in the Asia Pacific region, and it has the similar direct investment fluctuations in the same community. Although the economic links between Asia Pacific countries direct investment do not change, TPP changes the economic link structure among these countries(Asia Pacific production network architecture) and the pattern of direct investment. Therefore, the United States has affects the situation in Asia Pacific, and it is being gradually broken with China as the core hub of East Asian production networks(2) The Effects of direct investment in the Asia Pacific countries had already existed when the United States does not yet joined TPP, and it is more significant after the United States joining TPP. In the future, when TPP does not reach the high standards, it will not change direct investment situation and the original welfare in the Asia Pacific region. Although it will bring positive for TPP members, the influence of non TPP members is limited. However, once TPP reaches the high standard, it will change the pattern of direct investment in the Asia Pacific region. On one hand, it increases the welfare of members of the TPP and improves the welfare level of the whole world. On the other hand, it also decreases direct investment accumulated changes for non TPP and the adverse impact will also have tendency to expand.(3) Non TPP Asia Pacific countries showed different coping strategies, the formation of RCEP and FTAAP is the mainstream. ASEAN countries should be the central leading role and continue to implement the RCEP construction, which can delay the impact of TPP and protect the ASEAN integration; For China, it should support RCEP led by ASEAN, actively implement the " One Belt and One Road ",promote the construction of the FTAAP and do domestic reform to adapt to the new changes in the future international trade rules.The new contributions of this dissertation are: based on the investment location domino effect of TPP in the Asia Pacific region, on the one hand, it adapts new economic geography FC model and spatio-temporal autoregressive model(STAR model) to analyse the direct investment’s spatial distribution and predict the evolution trend of the Asia Pacific region in the future. On the other hand, it adapts DID model and GTAP-Dyn model to analyse and predict the influence degree of directinvestment. Finally, considering the fact that TPP, RCEP and FTAAP existing side by side respectively, it has a certain application value when it studies the location change of direct investment situation in the Asia Pacific region, and highlightes the effectiveness of coping strategies.