Study On Measurement And Source Of Growth Of Total Factor Productivity In China

How to improve China TFP, thus promote China’s sustainable macroeconomic growth, which is both a popular real social concerns, but also to explore a hot topic in the field of economic research. However, How much did the China TFP exactly were ? What is the real source to promote the growth of TFP? It has been a big controversy exists in the research field. In this regard, this thesis tried to compare the estimates of China TFP, analyze the sources of China TFP growth, and combined both of the two problems to construct an innovative comparative analysis framework. Through this comparison and reflection, the thesis tried to give the answer to current controversial research question. In particular, the relevant research work are in the following five aspects.First, measure and evaluate the status and situation of China TFP. The thesis reviewed the relevant literature study of TFP defined, on the basis of defining the concept and content of the TFP, in accordance with TFP measurement study process, summarized the research progress of the three methods. This thesis used the achievements of the three methods to measure the current situation of China’s TFP growth from 1979-2012 years of estimated results. According to SR method, DEA method, SFA method, China TFPG mean estimates were 3.754%, 0.843%, 5.324%, the median were 3.346%, 1.035%, 5.414%, which had very significant differences, in Comparison with numerical features, the results showed the average TFP growth range and standard deviation calculated by SR method were the maximum, respectively were 3.116% and 18.348%, reflecting the strong volatility characteristics. DEA method reflected the lowest average TFP growth rate which was only 0.843%, SFA method reflected the highest average TFP growth rate, the historical average growth rate was 5.324%.Second, evaluate and compare the TFP calculation methods that which is relatively in line with the theory and reality. To assess which result in the three TFP estimation is closer to economic realities, this thesis constructed comprehensive evaluation method combining three dimensions which were multiple regression analysis, frequency domain and time domain analysis method, using OLS + HAC standard error / BS standard error of regression, Markov regime switching and HP and BP filtering technology, according to the idea of "cause to result " and "result back to cause", firstly proposed a comparative framework in the field of TFP growth estimated region. By comparing three empirical methods and 12 data sets,this thesis found out no matter using the measure data collection of this thesis, or using open literature estimates data collection, TFPG(TFP growth) estimated by SR method have shown more consistent with economic theory and economic systems, while SFA and DEA estimates data set were relatively poor. This may be an important reason that in recent years, domestic usage of SFA and DEA to estimate TFPG often can’t explain the economic phenomena. Through above research, this thesis calculated the TFP growth in China with SR, put forward China’s TFP growth is not as pessimistic as estimated by using DEA scholars. At the same time, the results also showed China’s TFP growth didn’t have a stable continuity, indicating that China may still exist mechanism constraints or negative factors affecting the sustainability of TFP growth.Third, discover and validate the source of China TFPG. This thesis used the theory of transition economies, human capital theory, technology diffusion theory, and factors reallocation theory in the new classical economic growth and new economic growth theory framework, and got on the correspondence analysis between the source of TFP growth with the factors and systems and TFP concept and content, and ultimately built a set of source indicators. Through the compare confirming TFP source indicators to screening TFP calculation results, the thesis found the most likely representative measure of China TFP which was on behalf of actual performance, and finanlly verified the real source of TFP growth in China. The results showed that:①The role of Chinese ownership structure reform on TFP growth is not as expected. Empirical evidence showed that most TFP measurement data set of ownership structure indicator variable got negative coefficient, this meant that the non-state sector in the development process, although it had tremendous contribution to Chinese economic growth, but did not achieve relatively more pronounced promotion than the state-owned economy did in TFP growth, thus the performance of the ownership structure reform in TFP promotion is not as expected.②In model building stage, the empirical studies found human capital input of China does not directly promote TFP growth, and human capital and FDI interaction term does not promote the growth of TFP. ③Human capital and the import interaction term promoted the TFP growth. For the above-mentioned two different interaction’s mechanisms and performance, this thesis gave the explain from technology diffusion and technology absorption angles.④The technology leading position countries’ import and FDI promoted TFP growth. ⑤Labor reallocation promoted TFP growth.Fourth, through analysis and study on China TFP growth sources and their various impact mechanisms, this thesis thinks that there are several problems have constrained the Chinese TFP growth.①Financial Discrimination and low level labor force. Both of these hampered the non-state economic development, caused ownership structure reform didn’t promote TFPG as expected, reflected in the financial discrimination causing the non-state economic’s relatively low level of capital accumulation, and the accumulation of low level labor was relatively too high, both formed the deviation on the development cumulative level. By constructing this deviation indicators, the thesis used two models to validate, the verify results supported the theory of this thesis.②Binary labor market segmentation. From China’s reality, this thesis used labor market segmentation theory and mathematical models to analyze related problems, pointed out that China’s labor market existed dual structure or had two types, which led to the increasing human capital stock being invalid, and led to human capital didn’t promote TFP growth as expected.③The impact of FDI structure and import trade structure on the level of technology diffusion. This thesis used the same model and different data to compare and find that if the FDI and import were devided into the United States, Japan, Germany, and non United States, Japan, Germany of two types of data, then the latter will make a different standard error of the inspection of all imported variables become insignificant, in addition, standard error significant test results have declined with the three variables associated with FDI and import. Comparative results showed that in the United States, Japan and Germany with leading position, these countries’ imports and FDI grew in the first unit, the contribution to TFP was twice more than non-leading position countries’ imports and FDI, especially FDI reached more than 5 times. There existed a more obvious difference. In the trend of the number change, technology leading position countries’ FDI and import both in absolute terms and in relative proportions, whose growth were far inferior to non-leading technology position counrtries, relatively speaking, even were in the case of a recession. This reflected if the leading technology position countries were as the core technology diffusion source, these technology diffusion sources were exhausting.Fifth, analyze and discuss relevant policy recommendations. Based on above analysis, this thesis proposed that in ensuring the sustainability of China TFP growth, the key was to promote the upgrading and transformation of non-state economy, promote growth of human capital and making it play the role and promote independent innovation in country. Surrounding the above aspects, the thesis putted forward relevant policy recommendations in depth reform of the financial and labor markets, FDI and import policy adjustments, human capital’s input and usage reform as well as intellectual property strategic layout.