Effective Supply Insurance Of Chinese Fresh Agri-products

China is a big country of fresh agri-foods production and consumption. But as a result of the many fresh agro products producers, the small-scaled participating bodies and the undeveloped agricultural foods maket of perfect competition environment, China’s fresh agricultural products supply problems in circulation appear frequently. For example, the “hard to sell” and “hard to buy” phenomenon of fresh agri-products coexist, the quality problems appear frequently and the efficiency of fresh logistics is fairly low, etc. Although in recent years, government and the society attached great importance to the supply problem of fresh agricultural products, and issued a series of preferential protection policy, the supply problem of fresh agricultural products in our country still has not been effectively curbed. Under the guidance of the target of accelerating the construction of the agricultural modernization, and realizing the comprehensive well-off society, how to ensure the supply of fresh agricultural products effectively has become an emergent event restricting the agricultural development of China, the improvement of the majority of people’s living standard and even the harmony and establishment of the whole society.In view of this, this paper starts from the root of the fresh agricultural products’ supply problem. With the integration of product supply and demand theory, the cobweb theory, the supply chain management theory, the theory of circulation of commodities and other related theories, this paper conducted a theoretical and in-depth study on the effective supply of Chinese agri-products by using the game theory model, neural network prediction and nonlinear programming method. This study is financially supported by the Natural Science Foundation of China ‘Effective supply mechanism of fruit and vegetable products（No. 71340024）’, ‘The construction of modern rural logistics system and control strategy under low carbon economy（No. 71473213）’ and Jiangsu Provincial Project for Innovative Graduate ‘Countermeasures of fresh agri-products’ safe supply（No. KYZZ₀284）’. The main research work and conclusions are as follows:（1） On the basis of widely investigation and interview, this paper goes from three aspects, which are respectively the supply quantity, the supply quality and the logistics process. The present situation of fresh agricultural products supply and the main factors influencing the effective supply in China is stated in detail. Finally we make clear the key issues in the supply of fresh agricultural product and the main cause of these problems in China. This study shows that the key problems that restricts the effective supply of fresh agri-products in China include: repeated asymmetry of fresh agro products supply and demand, frequent occurrence of fresh food quality and safety incidents and the many fresh logistics links and process losses.（2） Aiming at the supply and demand asymmetry problem of agri-products, the paper constructs a four-layer neural network demand predicting model in a case of vegetables firstly. It can guarantee the general equilibrium of the supply quantity of Chinese agri-products. Then according to the development practice of fresh agri-produce supply chain in China, combined with the characteristics of agri-products’ random yield, the paper analyzes the decision-making behavior of farmers’ supply quantity of fresh agri-foods under the restriction of a strong and a week beneficial link respectively. And the influence of government subsidies on farmers’ supply quantity decision behavior of fresh agri-products is researched from the perspective of production subsidies. The results show that the root cause of abnormal fluctuations in prices of fresh agricultural products such as the phenomena of “hard to sell” and “hard to buy” in China is the asymmetry between supply and demand. Namely the demand exceeds supply or the supply exceeds demand. So the first method to ensure the balanced supply of fresh agricultural products quantity is to guarantee the matching of supply and demand. When there is uncertainty about the output, a strong interest connection relationship between farmers and fresh operators is more conducive to drive farmers to make efforts as the operators hope. The agricultural subsidy policy has some effect to protect the interests of the agricultural producers. The Subsidies Coefficient can affect producers more on their supply decision-making behavior.（3） Based on the microscopic behavior analysis, the paper researches the quality-related decisions of bodies participating in the fresh supply chain under government intervention and market mechanism respectively from a perspective of the fresh agri-supply chain integration. The ‘Food housekeeper’ is also taken as an example of case study for its fresh agri-supply chain integration practice. The results show that the implementation of supply chain integration is helpful to improve the quality of fresh agri-products supply level. The information is highly shared, the goal greatly coordinated, and the products wholly traceable in the integrated agri-supply chain. Thus the behavior of farmers to provide inferior products instead of qualified agri-products can be restrained effectively. In addition, the study found that there exists a “experience contradiction” of the core enterprise’ quality supervision behavior between the situation in the integrated agri-supply chain with the traditional one. That is, when the government takes a more intense control on the quality of agri-products, the core enterprise in the agri-supply chain should reduce the intensity of its quality inspection with an aim of maximizing its personal utility, which is just opposite to the traditional experience.（4） Through an abstract portrait of fresh agricultural products logistics process in the “Farmer—Fresh Agri-food Operator—Consumers” supply chain, an optimization model of fresh agricultural products logistics process is established considering the control of both the quantity loss and the quality attenuation. The cold fresh meat logistics process of X company is take as an representative instance analysis. The research results show that the quality of fresh agricultural products supply is more assured, though the total energy consumption and wastage cost are increased when taking into account both the quantity loss and quality control. This study provides a scientific reference for the control of the temperature and time of different units in the fresh agri-products cold chain logistics process.（5） According to the research above, some useful countermeasures and suggestions are put forward to safeguard the effective supply of agri-products in China. These measures are: reasonably regulate the fresh agricultural products market to make the supply and demand balanced, vigorously promote the integration of agri-supply chain to ensure the quality of fresh supply of agricultural products, shorten the agri-food logistics process to optimize the raw fresh logistics channels and establish and improve the related security facilities to protect effective supply of fresh agricultural products.