Study Of Low Carbon Development For Chinese Contiguous Destitute Areas

Low carbon development was the response to climate change and one of the important strategies to realize the goal of ecological civilization construction. Most destitute areas, locating in ecological fragile areas of China, need to crack "Population-Poverty-Environment" cycle and coordinate"Population-Society-Environment” system in the process of development. At the same time, a new development opportunity opened to contiguous destitute areas having a large number of ecological resources and carbon resources. There were lots of research on poverty and anti-poverty theory, but the concept of low carbon development for poverty alleviation was still in the stage of exploration. "PPE"cycle also had some time features in the new era, the related research was insufficient. Long time quantitative analysis with county scale and area scale was rare, either. This thesis did a more comprehensive and in-depth analysis of low-carbon development of continuous destitute areas in.To seek the breakthrough point of the crack "PPE" circle, "Population-Society-Environment" system was decomposed into "Population-Society", "Population-Environment" and "Society-Environment" subsystems to analyze separately. With the medium of land resources, building industry space and establishing "carbon sink resources, land resource, industrial development, energy consumption, carbon emissions" analytical paradigm to reconstruct " Population-Society-Environment" systems and complete the whole theoretical framework. This thesis collected and analyzed the panel data of 11 continuous destitute areas with 505 units in total. Spatial data and statistics were both useful.County scale and area scale of spatial data from the remote sensing, post-processing to county scale data,was used for analyzing the change of carbon sink resources and land resources. Statistics, including gross domestic product(GDP), population, investment, industrial added value, spatialized based on space vector data to do conjoint Analysis with spatial data.This main contributions: the county scale and area scale analysis covered all poor units. Find the primary factors resulting the imbalance of "Population-Society-Environment" system coupling. Find breakthrough point for cracking "PPE" circle by "industry development- carbon emissions" decoupling relationship analysis and low carbon productivity analysis. Discussed how to promote low carbon productivity from efficiency change. Carbon sink resource was introduced to measure and predict the changes of environmental pressure of destitute areas, and guide production efficiency improvement with.In this thesis, the conclusions of research included:Firstly, in 11 continuous destitute areas, the scale of carbon emissions increased by 138.22% in a decade. The average carbon intensity increased from 1 t/ha to more than 3 t/ha. The results of scale and intensity of carbon emissions provided the necessary foundation for the low carbon development research in continuous destitute areas.Secondly, the result of "Population-Society-Environment" system coupling analysis showed that about 40% of the units involved in imbalance. In all imbalance type, the proportion of severe and extreme imbalance was about 13%- 13%; mild and moderate imbalance were about 17%- 20%, otherswere more than 60%. The development of "Population-Society" subsystem was still the most important factor contributing to imbalance. Solving the lagging of economic development was the breakthrough point of the crack "PPE" circle, and the negative impact on other subsystem development must be considered. Under the environment and population size constraints, promote growth in GDP per head with low carbon industry development became necessary to realize the objective of comprehensive poverty alleviation and ecological civilization construction in continuous destitute areas.Thirdly, the relationship between the industrial development and carbon emissions reflected internal technical level change of "Population-Society" subsystem. The decoupling of output growth and carbon emissions increase represented the promotion of technical level, and promoted the system coupling coordination. Improving the level of technology was a key factor in the process of low carbon industry development and sustainable development. Technology changes played a critical role in the "Population-Society-Environment" systems.Fourth, the technical level change was explained by non-parametric technique efficiency analysis(DEA). Low carbon production efficiency analysis models were divided into the agricultural sector and non-agricultural sector model, respectively in district and county scales. The efficiency of the non-agricultural sector was superior to the agricultural sector. The whole efficiency of area better, the individual efficiency better. There was structural differences of the contribution of input and output inefficiency between the two sectors.Fifth, the countermeasures of improving inputs efficiency was discussed at county scale. As to investment, carbon sink resource value, investment gap and current poverty alleviation funds investment scale were considered together in order to realize the value of carbon sink resource and improve the efficiency of poverty alleviation fund. As to land resources, based on carbon sink resources value and different NPP capacity, the ecology value of land use was estimated. The method of promoting land use efficiency and marketizing land ecology value was discussed, which was more advantageous to achieve low carbon development and accurate poverty alleviation. As to labor force, the multiple effects on "Population-Society-Environment" system were explained from the ecological migration, economic migration and labor efficiency aspects.Sixth, through dynamic analysis of low carbon total factor productivity, technological change was clarified as the main growing factor. But the efficiency efficiency was more useful to promoting the decoupling "Industrial Development-Carbon Emissions", and coordinating the development of "Population-Society-Environment" system. In the practice of the low carbon development of poverty reduction, more attention should focus on efficiency change. And environment properties should be valued in technological change, in order to balance economic and environmental goals.Lastly, adjusting traditional IPAT model and the STIRPAT model by adding environmental stress and total factor productivity, influence factors of different district environment pressure were analyzed by ridge regression method. Wealth factor played the main more influential role. The impact of carbon sink resources per head was weaker. In some areas, the positive effect of technology change could make up for the reverse effect by the industry development. Using IPAT model o predict the environmentalstress in 2020. Unilaterally pursuing environmental target or emission reduction target would not conducive to ecological civilization construction and reaching the goal of poverty alleviation. Targeting on emission reduction goal and moderating lower economic development goal would be a feasible scheme.On the basis of the research conclusion, made the following policy recommendations: improving technical efficiency to promoting low-carbon industry development was the main direction of the cracking "PPE" circle. Benchmarking carbon sink resources value when allocating poverty alleviation funds. Making carbon sink resource value play more important role in the new urbanization process and all poverty alleviation projects. Paying more attention to the synergy of economic migration and ecological migration, optimizes the allocation of urban and rural labor force, and preventing excessive population migration. Targeting on emission reduction goal and moderating lower economic development goal would be a feasible scheme.