The Research On Dynamic Estimation Method Of Rural Surplus Labor And Its Application

The rural surplus labor is only a core problem of the economic developmental theory, but also an important problem which need to be researched. With the rapid agricultural technological progress, the paradox between the rural labor supply and requiste is extrusive. The rural surplus labor not only makes the peasants suffer a bad loss but also affects the cooperative development of the general economy. In addition, plenty of rural surplus labor force exist will probably lead to new economic and social problems. Therefore, the research on rural surplus labor problem bas both the meaning of perfecting labor force transferring theory, and the meaning of directing rural surplus labor force practice. However, the existing rural surplus labor research mainly focus ong the approaches to transfer surplus labor and the plolicies to promote labor transference, and the estimation approaches of the rural surplus labor, are mostly limited to static estimation, the lack of studies on the dynamic forecast the number of rural surplus labor, and existing methods are not focus on to propose the different methods the adopted to the industrial level and industry-level, lack of systemic lupus. The existing research ignore to establish the estimation method system of rural surplus labor force on the whole, as well as the change trend forecasts of rural surplus labor static to dynamic, in the estimation methods need to be further expanded and improved. Therefore, to research the dynamic estimation method of rural surplus labor not only has theoretical significance, but has important practical significance.In this paper, based on the development economic theory and demographic theory, integrated application system analysis, comparative analysis and forecasting methods, the combination of quantitative and qualitative, normative analysis and empirical analysis of cross-disciplinary research methods, rural surplus labor estimation method has been systematically studied. Previous study about rural surplus labor estimation, which limited to static estimating, lacking of research on dynamic prediction the number of rural surplus labor. The main content of this study are:(1) Based on the Chinese and foreign scholars in the analysis and summary of rural surplus labor estimation and prediction method,this paper summed up the advantages and disadvantages of each method, currently there have many rural surplus labor estimation methods, there are effective working man-days approach, the production function method, international standard model method, the base year method, the per labor arable land method, the marginal revenue method, The output value proportion method, the production resource and optimal allocation method, the unit labor calculation method. For these methods, there is no a unified understanding, which is also shows the research is not enough depth.. Based on the analysis and study of these methods, this paper pointed out the shortcomings of these methods, and almost all of the existing methods do not take into account the seasonal characteristics of planting.(2) In the study of dynamic estimation prediction on rural labor supply, this paper taken the rural labor supply as a system to study, used population prediction method to predict the rural labor, designed to provide a scientific prediction method for labor supply. First of all, through the detailed analysis of the ages shift algorithm, matrix equation model and Song Jian population development equation model, then determine to select population development equation model, which has high accuracy, taking into account the growth patterns on fertility levels, to the prediction variable set and parameter factors consideration are more careful and complete, which suits for the rural labor force aged population prediction, at last this paper based on the working-age population prediction, and given the potential labor force participation rate, got the final prediction model of labor supply.(3) In the situation of considering the regional characteristics, plant structure, natural conditions, farming patterns, meteorological factors, and many other factors which affect the labor demand,this paper established a relationship model between the planting mechanization degree and the labor demand, and by using the model, it not only calculated the current labor demand in a particular area, but also calculated the labor demand in the various moment in future through forecasting mechanization degree and arable land areas.The issues of getting the indicators of the arable land that the per labor can be burdened when the mechanization degree is 0 and 100% is also discussed, and also discussed the issues of getting the indicators about the arable land that the per labor can be burdened when the mechanization degree is 0 and 100%, and through the x2 distribution test and the principle of 3σ to remove the abnormal data.(4) In the research of dynamic estimation and prediction rural labor demand,the rural labor demand of first industry is the focus of estimation, when forecast planting labor demand,this paper used the experts predict method to predict the future arable land area, applied the combinations prediction model that based on rough set for predicting the mechanization degree,livestock industry estimation used the per capita working hours method, forestry and fisheries labor demand estimated by the output value proportion method. Also discussed the function relation between the rural secondary and tertiary industries labor and their corresponding output value, thus in the forecasting rural secondary and tertiary industries labor demand, the labor demand can be forecasted by making prediction on the output value. In the output value prediction, this paper used the combination forecasting models that based on Shapley value method and quadratic programming method, the predicted results shown that the combined forecasting model has higher prediction accuracy,which can predict the demand labor for rural secondary and tertiary industries.(5) Combined with the estimation forecasting methods of rural labor supply and rural labor demand, taking the Heilongjiang as a example, this paper estimated and forecasted the number and ratio of rural surplus labor, the predicted results show that there are a lot of surplus labor in Heilongjiang in the next period of time.