Comparative Study On The Service Industry Development In BRICS Countries

The report of the 18 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China pointed out to promote the service industry especially to development the modern service industry. "National economic and social development in the Thirteenth Five Year Plan Outline" also pointed out that, in the "Thirteenth Five Year Plan" period, China should carry out action to accelerate the development of modern service industry, optimize the development environment of service industry, further to improve the weight of service industry value added. Visibly, the development of service industry has been included in the important schedule of our country.The law of the world economy development indicates that, at a certain stage of social development, industry accounted for the proportion of the national economy will decline, while the proportion of service industry increases quickly, the service industry will eventually replace the industry to become the most important engine to promote economy growth. China has entered the post industrial era, the service industry status has been increasingly significant.Brazil, Russia, India, South Africa and China are five important emerging economies in the world, known as the BRICS or BRICS countries. In recent years, the BRICS as a leader in the world’s emerging economies, their economic development make a spurt of progress, and their international political status has been constantly enhanced.In 2014, Brazil’s, Russia’s, India’s, China’s and South Africa’s weight of service industry value added are respectively of 71.03%、60.01%、52.08%、48.11% and 68.05%. Service industry has become the most important engine to stimulate the BRICS economies growth.To study on the BRICS service development has become an urgent and necessary task.China is a developing country, and also is a rapid economic development country in emerging economies. The BRICS countries are similar and closely with China. As the saying goes, “Itself has yet, know yourself”. In order to better promote the great development of China’s service industry, understanding and comparative analysis of the BRICS countries service industry development status is very necessary.A comparison of the BRICS service development, comprehensive evaluation and prediction on the BRICS service industry development, referring to “the Outside Box", making up for the vulnerable areas of China’s service industry development, giving full play to the comparative advantage to the development of service industry in our country, that all have a positive practical significance to promote the economic development of our country.An in-depth and extensive research is conducted by scholars at home and abroad on the concept of service and service industry, the relationship of service industry and the tertiary industry, the classification and development of service industry and so on. But because the BRICS “birth” time is not long, the research on development of the BRICS service industry at home and abroad is not enough. From the current research results, scholars’ research on the development of the BRICS service industry is more concentrated in the BRICS trade competitiveness, the development status of the BRICS service industry, while the systematical study and the full range comparison and comprehensive evaluation and prediction of the development level, speed, industrial structure, environment, infrastructure conditions of the BRICS service industry is still a blank. In this paper, a systematical and comprehensive analysis from the horizontal and vertical angle of the BRICS service industry development will fill the academic blank in this area. So it has a strong theoretical significance.In this paper, research methods such as literature review, comparative research, quantitative analysis combining with qualitative analysis are used.At present, there are many literatures about service industry, in order to refine the literatures closely related to the BRICS service industry development, the author searches, screens, reads and organizes a large number of these literatures in the literature database.In this paper, a series of comparison on the development level, speed, industrial structure, economic environment, technological environment, humanistic environment and the infrastructure conditions of the BRICS service industry is carried out. And the method of comparative study is also used in the links of comprehensive evaluation and forecast of the BRICS service industry development.In the process of comparative study on the BRICS service industry development, the author conducts a large number of quantitative analysis, supplementing by qualitative analysis at the same time.The main research contents of this paper include the following parts:The first chapter, introduction. The background, goal and significance of the selected topic of this article, the research methods, the technical route and the research contents are elaborated.The second chapter, the present research situation of domestic and foreign scholars and the service industry theories. The main points of a large number of research literatures at home and abroad are listed. The service industry and the economic development stage theory, the service industry and the industrial structure evolution theory, the relationship of the service industry and the industry theory, the relationship of the service industry and the employment theory are expounded.The third chapter, a comparative study of the development level, speed and industrial structure of the BRICS service industry. The comparative research on the development level of the BRICS service industry is conducted from the dimensions such as the service industry value added, the service industry to the increase of GDP, the service industry value added per capita and the service industry employee number. The comparative research on the development speed of the BRICS service industry is conducted from the dimensions such as the growing speed of the value added, growing speed of the value added per capita, growing speed of employment, growing speed of labor productivity in the service industry. The comparative research on the industrial structure of the BRICS service industry is conducted from the dimensions such as the weight of value added, weight of employment, and the goods and services tax as percentage of total tax.The fourth chapter, the comparative study on the development environment and the infrastructure conditions of the BRICS service industry. The comparative research on the economic environment of the BRICS service industry is conducted from the dimensions such as the GDP, the GDP per capita, the gross national income per capita, the net inflow of foreign direct investment as percentage of GDP. The comparative research on the scientific and technology environment of the BRICS service is conducted from the dimensions such as the college enrollment rate, the number of the patent applications of the residents, the number of R&D researchers per million people, the R&D expenditure as percentage of GDP, and the communication, computer etc. as percentage of service exports. The comparative research on the humanistic environment of the BRICS service industry is conducted from the dimensions such as the human development index, the globalization index, the global competitiveness index, the information communication technology development index(IDI), and the knowledge economic index. The comparative research on the infrastructure conditions of the BRICS services industry is conducted from the dimensions such as the proportion of urban population, the railway freight volume, the container port traffic, the number of telephone mainlines, and the number of Internet users. The linear regression analysis is carried out on some of the above mentioned indexes.The fifth chapter, the comprehensive evaluation of the BRICS service industry development. By using the factor analysis method, a comprehensive evaluation is conducted on the dimensions such as the BRICS service industry development level, the development speed, the industrial structure, the economic environment, the scientific and technological environment, the humanistic environment and the infrastructure conditions. A comprehensive evaluation and analysis on the competitiveness of service industry in BRICS is carried out. A comprehensive evaluation on the competitiveness of service industry in the BRICS in 2010-2014 is carried out respectively. And the average value of factor scores of the five years is sorted and analyzed.The sixth chapter, the predictions for the BRICS service industry development. By using the time series analysis method, the paper predicts the indicators such as the value added, weight of the value added, growing speed of the value added, employee number, and weight of employment and growing speed of employment in the BRICS service industry.The seventh chapter, the policy recommendations on China service industry development. According to the previous chapters each index comparison results, the comprehensive evaluation factor analysis results and the time series prediction results, some implications and suggestions and macro countermeasures of China’s service industry are put forward.The eighth chapter, conclusion and prospect. The conclusions, the main innovative points of this paper and the deficiency of research are presented. And the future of research work is discussed.The main innovative points of this paper are as follows:(1) The overall framework of the comparative research on the development of the BRICS service industry is innovatively first designed,using the authority data of the United Nations and the World Bank, the BRICS service industry development are analyzed horizontally and vertically.In this paper, the overall framework of the comparative research on the development of the BRICS service industry is first designed. By using the authority data of the United Nations and the World Bank, the comparison of cross section data for all third level indicators of the development of the level, the speed, the industrial structure, the economic environment, the scientific and technological environment, the humanistic environment and the infrastructure conditions of the BRICS service industry development is carried out. And the comparison of the longitudinal data of time series is also made. And linear regression analysis of some indexes is conducted. Found that a number of indicators of the service industry development of China rank front in the BRICS. And also found that a country’s service industry development and the country’s scientific and technological environment, the humanistic environment, the basic conditions is a linear positive correlation respectively.(2) The comprehensive evaluation index system of BRICS service industry development is designed.Seven second level indicators such as the level, the speed, the industrial structure, the economic environment, the scientific and technological environment, the humanistic environment and the infrastructure conditions of the BRICS service industry development are designed. And 30 third level indicators such as the value added, the growing speed of the value added, the weight of the value added of the service industry and so on are also designed. All studies are included in the indexes system.(3) The BRICs service industry development factor analysis models are constructed, and by using the factor analysis method, the BRICS service industry development is comprehensively evaluated.By using the factor analysis method, factor analysis and evaluation of the second level indicators such as the level, the speed, the industrial structure, the economic environment, the scientific and technological environment, the humanistic environment and the infrastructure conditions of the BRICS service industry development in 2014 are made. The factor analysis models of these indicators are written. Comprehensive factor analysis and comprehensive evaluation on the BRICS service industry development competitiveness in 2014 are conducted. The key factors of the BRICS service industry development are extracted. And the factor analysis model of the comprehensive evaluation of the BRICS service industry development competitiveness is written. Comprehensive evaluation result shows that the competitiveness of China’s service industry development is the strongest. The BRICS 2010-2014 service industry competitiveness is compared with factor analysis and comprehensive evaluation respectively. Sorting and analysis on the average score of the five years of the factors is conducted. Found that Chinese service industry competitiveness average factor score in 2010-2014 is the highest.(4) By using the time series analysis method, the BRICS service industry development is predicted.By using the time series analysis method, the major economic and employment indicators of BRICS service industry development such as the value added, weight of the value added, growing speed of the value added, employee number, weight of employment and growing speed of employment in the service industry are predicted for the next ten years. A comparison and analysis of the evolution trend of these indicators is carried out. Found that there are 4 forecast value of indicators of China ranking top, and other 2 ranking lower.Although this paper creatively studies the BRICS service industry development with a full range comparative research, but by the research conditions, research ability and research time constraints, this paper also has many shortcomings, such as the scope of the study is not wide enough, the research depth is not deep enough, and the time span of using of many indexes data is not wide enough and so forth.In the future, further research on the BRICS service industry development will be in the following aspects:(1) Continue to strengthen the comparative study of the BRICS service industry development. A comparative study of the indicators of the BRICS service industry development will be conducted using data in longer time span.(2) Further predictions to the BRICS service industry development will be carried on. Forecast will be not only for the 6 indicators of existing, but also be for more indexes of the BRICS service industry development.(3) To rich the reference system of the BRICS service industry development. As the America’s, Japan’s, and UK’s service development data will be used, then to carry on comparative research with BRICS service industry development data.The above research work will be strengthened, so as to obtain more accurate conclusions of the development situation of the BRICS service industry.