| In recent years, more and more problems about real estate prices become the focus of the society and the government. The healthy development of the real estate industry, not only influences the development of relevant industries and even affects the stable operation of the national economy, the important event is also affecting the lives of people. More and more high prices, has exceeded the ordinary property buyers purchase ability. One side is the people who doesn’t own house can not afford housing, the other side is the "imperial estate" and the high vacancy rate of the frequent, the housing bubble are increasingly large. The government issued a series of policies in the control of the the real estate market, often in the short-term they can effect but also experienced a rebound later. So this paper hopes to seek the key to solve the problems of high prices from the market itself.The paper analyses our house in the city and first-tier cities housing prices, and concludes that there is significant house price bubble in China first-tier cities. Then on basis of the real estate price decision theory the thesis tries to carry on the theoretical research and to guide the research on real estate prices decision, and then establishes the equilibrium analysis framework of this article. Through the economic analysis, equilibrium analysis and empirical analysis method of combining, the article finally draws the conclusion analysis framework. The analysis on China’s implementation of the policy losing efficacy, put forward the corresponding countermeasures and suggestions.Is there a problem in China’s real estate market development? Does it exist the housing bubble? Which way we should choose to solve the problem? Those are the three problems the thesis need to solve, and the third question is the focus of this article.To solve the first problem, this paper reviewed by the course of China’s real estate development, and then carefully studied on our country real estate economic data in recent years, then find that indeed there are many problems in China’s real estate market, the most serious one of which is about the price differences among cities is not balanced and is too large. This article first has carried on the analysis to the widening income gap on the impact of house prices, and then through the transformation definition, in accordance with the principle of drawing Lorenz curve in China, based on one hundred highest price data, draws a "house price Lorenz curve drawing, " shows a phenomenon of excessive prices high gap city.For the second question, the article also gives the affirmative reply. Because of first-tier cities in the real issue is obviously more serious than the other general city, so the choice of data records is more representative.Beijing and Shanghai index statistics are comprehensive, this is also the main reason for analysis part selecting the two city in empirical research. According to the characteristics of housing has the dual attributes of consumption and investment, the paper choose the corresponding indicators that can reflect the real estate bubble-housing price income ratio and the price to rent ratios. The results show that China’s real estate bubble especially first-tier cities does exist and has reached a very dangerous state. Although the data index measuring different with two city, in 2010 they both reached the peak of the real estate bubble. Analysis found that, this is the forecast of China’s experts predict China’s four trillion investment to stimulate the economy in the second half of 2009 to produce effect completely consistent.Apparently the stimulation to the investment, first-tier cities response is more intense, the obvious price bubble has emerged. So this paper gets into second main line, makes the first-tier cities as an example for further analysis and research.On my third question, I adopt the method of combining theory with practice to solve. This paper respectively studied classical economics (including Marx) production cost determinism, the marginal utility of the school of new classical decision theory, the equilibrium of supply and demand theory, land rent theory and location theory, and researched on the significance of each theory in real estate prices in practice. And on the basis of the research, the thesis put forward its own theoretical framework:the equilibrium of supply and demand analysis as the main frame, full of the consideration of all kinds of theory for the factors affect prices,5 aspects of the establishment of demand,13 sub factors; 6 aspects of the establishment of supply with 10 sub factors.According to the equilibrium analysis framework, this paper uses economic analysis, balanced combination of theoretical analysis draws the following conclusion:In the early stage of house prices rising, supply and demand factors together determine the real estate price changes direction; along with rising prices to irrational bubble, demand factors played a more important role. To solve the strong demand for housing is the key for first-tier cities real estate cooling.The article then hope to use empirical analysis to verify the conclusion of theoretical analysis.The empirical analysis using the method of grey correlation analysis and principal component analysis method to verify the above conclusion.First of all, under the Enlightenment of existing research results of supply and demand equilibrium model, the article has established a simple model. The article selects Shanghai and Beijing as representative for first-tier cities north and south to be the object of empirical analysis, with the representative index framework from 2003 to 2013 panel data as the basic data, using the method of correlation analysis of each index and the prices of the grey correlation analysis, measurement of two city and prove the conclusion:Although the supply and demand analysis factors associated with housing prices are relatively close, the top three influence factors are the demand factors, the influence factors on the demand is greater than supply factors; Using principal component analysis by dimension reduction to make linear equation model. Information from two cities are the same:4 factors in he top 5 important influence factors are the demand factors, demand factors affecting price occupies dominant position.So these are two methods conclusion correspond perfectly, both of demand factors and supply side especially the focus of the former one is the key to solve the problem.The main innovative points of the paper are:1. Try to make price Lorenz curve. The Lorenz curve is depicted a state of whether the income is balance, then by converting the converting concept, this paper proposes for the first time the defined price Lorenz curve, and the gap prices among cities appears the imbalance. For the data and energy is limited, the paper only use one hundred highest price cities to construct the curve.2.Repeated verification conclusion; To make the conclusion more reliable. The theoretical analysis and empirical analysis conclusion consistent with each other was the first round of verification; the conclusions of the two analysis methods in empirical analysis are the same is the second level of validation; each analytical method for Beijing and Shanghai two cities reached the same conclusion is the third level of validation.3. The article for the first time to segment the prices rise process into three parts, with the curve of supply and demand equilibrium formation illustrated explanation of beginning of rising prices and the emergence of the whole process of foam, make changes and the conclusion more intuitive; 4. The most comprehensive analysis including the sub factors of supply and demand aspects from the view of market on house price-decision. Most of previous research literature from one perspective or several factors to analyze the prices and some do not form system, some consideration was too narrow. In this paper, enlightened from the existing research, the article does further analysis of the real estate market, establish the housing market equilibrium framework composed with the index system more comprehensive.Finally the full text of the main analysis results are as follows:China’s real estate market development does exist problems, mainly reflected in the development of real estate industry are uneven between cities, price difference is too large. The main price bubble is concentrated in the first-tier cities. Through this analysis, the article establishes the supply and demand equilibrium analysis framework, and makes the conclusion that demand is the main cause of China’s first-tier cities high prices. Through the empirical analysis confirms previous speculation:the supply and demand sides to jointly determine the price, but apparently high prices should be more attributed to demand. The review and analysis of the existing policy of our country through the regulation of real estate policy shows that the effect is not ideal Combining with the text analysis above, the paper puts forward suggestions and measures of my own.
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