Research On The Impact Of Japanese Reindustrialization Strategy On China’s Shipbuilding Trade Competitiveness

The reindustrialization strategy was originated in 1970s. Japanese reindustrialization strategy aims to strengthen industrial technology competitiveness and return manufacturing to the main status of economic development. China’s shipbuilding industry involves many related industries and it is characterized with more knowledge, capital and technology-intensive, therefore the implementation of Japanese reindustrialization strategy may have some impact on the development of China’s shipbuilding industry. China’s traditional trade competitiveness means need to be changed. Our shipbuilding trade competitiveness should shift from the original characteristics of the labor-intensive, low cost into the technology-intensive and innovation strategy. By means of the changes, it can increase the technology innovation investment of shipbuilding, including the usage of new ship and the introduction of new management model.Based on the Economic Cycle Theory, Competition Theory and Strategic Trade Theory, the paper tries to discuss the impact on our shipbuilding trade competitiveness due to the implementation of Japanese reindustrialization strategy. It analyses the status quo of trade competitiveness of China’s shipbuilding and does basic analysis by using some index, such as Trade Competitiveness Index, Revealed Comparative Advantage Index and Michaely Index. Based on Porter’s "Diamond Model" with the principles of objective direction, scientific feasibility, comprehensive systematic and dynamic continuity, it establishes the evaluation index system of China’s shipbuilding trade competitiveness. The evaluation index system consists of "production factor" index, "demand conditions" index, "related and supporting industry" index and "business strategy, market structure and competition" index, covering 23 specific indicators related the primary and advanced production factors, the demand scale, the demand structure, upstream and downstream industries, and related industries, business and competition. According to the empirical analysis of our shipbuilding trade competitiveness by using Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP), Fuzzy Comprehensive Evaluation (FCE) and HP Filter, it shows that trade competitiveness index fluctuated due to the financial crisis in 2008 and it stays in its recovery stage recently. The composition forces of four secondary indicators such as production factor have influenced the changing characteristics of trade competitiveness. In the trend analysis, it is similar between trade competitiveness index and the four secondary indicators. Among the results, the trend of business strategy, market structure and competition indicator is most similar to the trade competitiveness index and the indicators of demand condition and production factor has significant influence to trade competitiveness.It shows empirical study in the impact of Japanese reindustrialization strategy on China’s shipbuilding trade competitiveness. First, China’s shipbuilding industry has some international competitiveness. Three indicators of shipbuilding completions, handling orders and contracting new orders have been rising, and the share of the world of three indicators has also shown the increasing trend. Secondly, it selects the index of Japanese reindustrialization and adopts the methods of diffusion index and factor analysis to measure the reindustrialization, quantify the trends and composite index of reindustrialization strategy. The Japanese reindustrialization strategy index has cointegration relationships to trade competitiveness and demand conditions respectively. The error correction model shows a significant negative correlation in long-term, and if it deviates from the long-term equilibrium in short-term, it can achieve self-adjusting to narrow margin of deviation and to maintain long-term equilibrium trend. Thirdly, the Japanese reindustrialization strategy index has negative influences to the five indicators of demand condition, which significantly affects the demand structure. The demand of high-value ship is increasing due to the reindustrialization, but our main export is still concentrated in low-value ship, especially in bulk carriers and container ships.In order to promote China’s shipbuilding trade competitiveness, it needs to stabilize the low-valued ship market demand, promote the growth of high-value ship demand, seek development opportunities according to characteristics of economic cycle and develop the external economic effect of related and and supporting industries. The stability of low-value ship market demand should consolidate the domestic market demand and increase international market demand. The promoting growth in demand for high-value ship should build quality ship project and impel the upgrade of industry and product. Seeking the development opportunities according to characteristics of economic cycles should not only seize the economic and policy opportunities, but also seize the law perfection opportunity and international business strategy implementation opportunity. The development on the external economic effect of related and supporting industries should enhance the competitiveness of related industries and promote the development of supporting industries.