The Empirical Analysis Of China’s Labor Flow Impact On The Economic Development Gap

It is an inevitable phenomenon for the rural labor migration in the process ofindustrialization，urbanization and modernization in China．It is through severallarge-scale flow in our country，especially after the reform and opening up，the peakof labor migration is in1981-1985，1991-1995and2000years later，at the same time，the way of labor migration is changed，but what are the factors that affect the rurallabor migration in China？As the labor flowing，the economic development betweenregions appears differentiation，and the eastern region gradually widens the gapbetween the central and western regions．The research’s results about the regionaleconomic development is very much，but the difference of of the result is bigger，theexisting research that labor mobility is to expand or narrow the gap between regionsdoes not consistent conclusions．This paper attempts to study two questions：First，which kind of decision making mechanism the migrant rural labor will be made？Second，what kind of influence will be produced by the labor mobility，to regionaleconomic development is to expand or narrow the gap between regional economicdevelopment？First of all，after combing migration in our country present situation，itsregularity results show that the expanding scale of population migration in China;Thelabor migration in the eastern is mainly net move in，and the labor migration in thecentral and western regions is mainly net emigration; The population agglomerationtrend in the eastern provinces is more and more obvious;The labor migration data isestimated according to the population flow data．The regional economic developmentgap is decomposition in accordance with the eastern，central and western using theGini coefficient decomposition formula．and the results show that the per capital GDPbetween1978and2010is0.268-0.356which is down N type change;and the regionaleconomic disparities is come from the eastern coastal area and inland areas in the Midwest，and among the provinces of the eastern coastal areas．Second，using the data from China Family Panel Studies2010，this paper test theeffects of family decision and family endowment on rural labor migration，includingboth the intra-province migration and inter-province migration．We draw severalconclusions．First，the family human capital has a significant impact on the labormobility，and the family member outdoor-workers probability will be increased by35times when the family size every one unit increase；Second，the family social capitalhas a negative impact on rural labor migration，and the family labor with abundantsocial capital will have high probability of cross-regional flow；Third，the incomeeffect of family capital will be greater than the substitution effect，and the labor whosefamily economic capital is rich will have a lower probability of migrant workers；butthe substitution effect of the natural capital is greater than the income effect，andfamily natural capital will have a promoting effect on the labor migration；Inaddition，there is a obvious group effect of rural labor migration．Finally，It is analysis the labor flow’s influence on the economic growth from theviewpoints of both qualitative and quantitative，and the result show that there is along-term equilibrium relationship between the rural labor flow and economicgrowth，and the rural labor flow is the granger cause of economic growth． Thisarticle basis on the new economic geography “Labor mobility industrialconcentration-economic development gap” analysis framework to build economicconvergence model，the results show that the labor mobility will be expanded first andthen narrow the regional economy gap． The labor mobility was diverged the regionaleconomic between1995and2000，but narrowed the regional economy gap between2005and2010．...