A Study On The Efficiency Of Urbanization In Jilin Province And The Improvement Countermeasures

Urbanization is a very important economic and social phenomenon in thedevelopment of human society. After the industrial revolution, the urbanization beganto accelerate. Currently, under the background of the informatization andglobalization, the process of urbanization around the world shows new features: thedeveloping countries become the major promoters in the process of globalurbanization. The developing countries are achieving the rapid urbanization, but theyare also facing serious challenges. Meanwhile the urban network system is formingaround the world. In response to acid challenges during the process of urbanization,China has proposed the "new-type urbanization" strategy, which will become animportant opportunity for China to solve the "agriculture, rural areas and farmers"issues, narrow regional disparities and achieve the transformation of the pattern of theeconomic development. In recent years, Jilin Province has faced the lower speed ofthe urbanization and the lack of the urbanization dynamic, and the urbanization inJilin Province still faced some problems, such as the imperfect urban systems and thelower urbanization quality. So the research on the efficiency of urbanization in JilinProvince has an important theoretical and practical significance.Based on the above analysis, began with the changing trend and the spaceevolution of the urbanization in Jilin Province, the paper has a research on theurbanization efficiency in Jilin Province, and proposes the constructive policyrecommendations. First, this paper focuses on the changing trend of the urbanizationin Jilin Province. By reviewing the history of the changes in the level of theurbanization in Jilin Province, Logistic curve is used to forecast the future level and the speed of the urbanization. The prediction shows that the level of the urbanizationin Jilin Province will reach78percent in2060, but the speed of the urbanizationbegan to reduce in2003, and the urbanization is in the lower speed stage. Then theentropy method is used to establish the comprehensive evaluation system of theurbanization. The results show that from1988to2012the comprehensive level of theurbanization in Jilin Province has been improving. This is the result of various factorsincluding the population, economy, land and social urbanization, and the biggestimpact is coming from the economic factor. By using the four-dimensionalperspective and principal components regression analysis, the empirical studies on theurbanization dynamic mechanism show that the market and administrative forces arethe main driving forces of the urbanization in Jilin Province.Second, there is a research on the spatial evolution of the urbanization in JilinProvince from three aspects, including the evolution history, city size distributionsand the impact from the urban systems to the urbanization in Jilin Province. Thehistory of urban systems in Jilin Province can be divided into three phases: before1860cities and towns were isolated developed, and there was no urban systems; from1860to1949the prototype of urban systems began to appear; after1949the urbansystems were eventually formed and continuous improvement. Then the city sizedistributions of urban systems in Jilin Province are studied. The statistical indexshows that the primate city in Jilin Province has a rapid development, and low-classcities also developed with a slower speed. This means urban systems in Jilin Provinceshows the characteristics of the primate distribution. In general the city sizedistributions trends intensively, but in recent years it begins to decentralize. Theempirical studies on the urban systems show that the urban systems of Jilin Provinceconforms the rank-size rule, and the Zipf index shows an increasing trend. But thereis a large gap between the predicted and actual size of the primate city. There areprombles in the urban systems of Jilin Province: the unreasonable city size distributions, the unbalanced spatial distribution and the unreasonable city functions.These problems will restrict the further development of the urbanization in JilinProvince.Third, the study focuses on the dynamic relationship between the urbanizationand the economic growth in Jilin Province. From the mechanism of action, therelationship between economic growth and the urbanization is complementary andmutually promoting. The economic growth promote the urbanization in four respectswhich are the evolution of the industrial structure and employment structure, theagglomeration of the industry and service industry, and the construction of theinfrastructure. By effecting the input of factors, human capital, division of labor andinstitutional change the urbanization promotes the economic growth. By using thegrey relational analysis this paper empirical studies the coordination between theurbanization and the economic growth in Jilin Province. The result indicates a highcorrelation and a better coordination between them. The coordination and causalitytest on the relationship between the urbanization and economic growth shows thatthey have a long-run equilibrium relationship, and the effect of the economic growthto the urbanization is greater than the effect of the urbanization to the economicgrowth in Jilin Province.Fourth, The DEA and Malmquist index methods are used to study theurbanization efficiency and its dynamics change in Jilin Province. The resultsdemonstrate that during the study period the comprehensive efficiency evaluationvalue of the urbanization in Jilin Province is not high, and its changing range is notbig. The invalid urbanization efficiency exists in the most of cities. The inputredundancy of factors and the insufficient output is universal, which means the use ofthe factors is inadequate and the structure is unreasonable.The decreased averageannual Malmquist Index proves that the improvement of the urbanization in JilinProvince is in the invalid growth phase. The further studies show that there are the technology retrogression and diseconomies of scale during the process of theurbanization in Jilin Province, of which the technology retrogression plays a key rolein reducing the urbanization efficiency. But during the process the allocation offactors has been improved. Studies on the parts of Jilin Province show that theurbanization efficiency is decreased in most areas, only increased in Jilin, Liaoyuanand Songyuan.Finally, based on the above researches, the policy suggestions are put forward toimprove the urbanization efficiency in Jilin Province, including promoting themovement of population, optimizing the urban spatial structure, speeding up theindustrial restructuring and upgrading and improving the use efficiency of factors.