A Study On Correlation Model Of Seaport Container Throughput And Gross Domestic Product

Transportation is an important foundation for economic and social development. Container transport with its efficient, convenient, safe and modern features become an important form of transportation. The quality of container ports affects the external transport costs, related to foreign direct investment (Foreign Direct Investment, FDI) inflows quantity. Quality of port infrastructure will produce accumulation effect and become a global type or regional shipping center.The vigorous development of China’s container transportation industry in the80’s has stimulated the construction boom around the container terminal. Due to the construction of the container port with a large amount of capital investment, long construction period features, the blind pursuit of development hub boom will cause a huge waste. So a study of medimum and long term (to2020) forcast of our seaport container throughput is great significance for planning the rational distribution of ports and the integrated transportation system construction of our contry.The domestic and foreign research papers on the seaport container transport were studied, and the theory of transportation economics was introduced, then a causal relationship theory on the territorial GDP to the seaport container throughput is proposed based on the analysis of grey correlation degree of China’s GDP and its factors to the seaport container throughput, and also based on studying the contribution rate of the per capita GDP and total import and export volume change of the foreign trade and services to the seaport container throughput. The characteristics of the causal relationship can be expressed as the coefficient of elasticity of seaport container throughput to the territorial GDP. In order to find out the effect of the three major factors of GDP to seaport container throughput, a fomula on the elastic elasticity coefficient of seaport container throughput relating to GDP and to three factors is derived.The development situation of the global container transportation industry was analysied, and the reform of American and Japanese container transport systems were studied. A comparison of seaport container transports among China, the United States and Japan showed that:the relationships between territorial GDP and seaport container throughput of different regions, different economic bodies are not the same. The seaport container transport industry of different countries (regions) depends not only on the own GDP, also depends on their development stage of industrialization, depends on natural endowment, economic growth mode and the position in the chain of global economic integration.Methods for forecasting seaport container throughput can generally be divided into two categories currently:one is the time series analysis, another is causal approach. Time series analysis is to identify a mathematical model based on historical trends of seaport container throughput. The causality approach is mainly based on a variety of socio-economic indicators of the hinterland, to identify the relationship between these indicators and container throughput, and then to forecast seaport container throughput based on these changes in socio-economic indicators. The above two methods have encountered difficulties in predicting the medimum and long-term container throughput. In this dissertation, a time series joined with causality method is proposed for the medium and long-term forecasting seaport container throughput. The method used GDP as an explanatory variable to replace time series. Relationship between GDP and container throughput is obtained by polynomial fitting. We did not use each factor of GDP separately or together, because the seaport container throughput is the joint action result of the the various factors of GDP, and the the factors of GDP are of great relevance, it is difficult to determine the main components of the factors determining the container throughput. The GDP is also the joint action result of the national economy elements.In order to overcome the instability of nonlinear curve, when time series was replaced by the GDP series, we took the natural logarithm of GDP and container throughput series, and then the HP filter (The Hodrick-Prescott filter) was used to obtain the trend components of GDP series and container throughput series by a reasonable choice filter factor, then a correlation model of seaport container throughput and gross domestic product was established based on timeseries-causality method. The container throughput of China’s and major seaport in2020are predicted. The prediction results show that:the seaport container throughput will reach2.308×108TEU in2020, as China’s GDP average annual growth rate is of7.5%, it will reach2.258×108TEU, as the GDP average annual growth rate is of6.0%, and it will reach2.195×108TEU, as the GDP average annual growth rate of is4.5%, respectively.According to the variations of seaport container throughput, the Chine’s main ports are divided into mature, synchronous growth and super growth three categories, respectively. The medium and long-term forecast of container throughput for Shanghai, Shenzhen, Guangzhou, Tianjin, Ningbo-Zhoushan, Qingdao, Dalian and Xiamen8main ports were given by using Logistic model, time series-causality method and combination forecasting method. The results show:Shanghai, Shenzhen and Guangzhou ports will be mature into saturation before and after2020; Ningbo Zhoushan, Qingdao and Tianjin.Port container throughput of synchronous growth will be steady growth, and gradually expand their proportion of container throughput in the contry; the container throughput of Dalian Port was growth rates of more than22%for three consecutive years, called as "Dalian Port phenomenon", a study on Dalian local economic situation and the global economic background proved its strive to high speed growth stage being difficult to continue.At present, the world economic situation is perplexing; China is promoting the transformation of economic development mode from factor driven to innovation driven and the structural adjustment. China as a "world factory" position will be changed. Scientific prediction is very important for the China’s seaport container port layout and planning.