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Global Oil-gas Competition And The Strategic Choice Of China

Posted on:2013-02-21Degree:DoctorType:Dissertation
Country:ChinaCandidate:W SuFull Text:PDF
GTID:1109330368983971Subject:Resource industries economy
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Economic globalization is an objective requirement and the inevitable result of the development of productive forces in modern society, which leads to form an interdependent and competitive situation among many countries. With the rapid development of modern scientific technology and the unprecedented rapid increase in production and consumption levels, relying solely on domestic development is not only more and more limited by domestic resources and markets, but also can’t meet consumers with more diversified demand. In order to resolve these contradictions and problems, we must make full use of both domestic and international markets and resources, and maximize participating the international division of labor, in order to achieve the optimal allocation of strategic resources and to realize the goal of minimum cost of domestic products through the transnational flow of production factors. At the same time, the process of economic globalization is also accompanied by contradictions among national interests, local interests and the overall interests. In the process of globalization, the strength of one country no longer depends entirely on their total productivity amount, but is determined in its absolute control and stable access to global resources, especially the amount of strategic resources; Status of one country in global politic economic structure is no longer simply decided by the total amount of its currently-owned wealth, but depends on its ability to ensure these treasures to grow continuously and the Amount of owned-resources to keep national production on sustainable development; failure of one country in the competition no longer shows loss of existing state wealth, but that its global resources supply chain for producing these wealth is cut off. Estimate on the war and peace has always been an important issue in making international development strategies. The essence of national development strategy is resource strategy, which appears as oil-gas strategy during the oil-gas era.Oil-gas strategic concerns the country’s overall situation of politics, economy and social development, economic globalization makes every country’s oil and gas strategies is no longer independent hermetic system but interrelated, interdependent and interactive system. Petroleum economy globalization means global oil-gas production and trade will be open to global markets; the development of petroleum economic globalization has resulted in more violent and bloody competition on the dominant right of the oil-gas resources. Petroleum strategy is not only one economic problem, but also a matter of the whole issues which is related to the overall development of politics, economy, military and cultural etc. In the context of globalization, a country’s energy situation is inseparably related with world oil market, in-depth analysis on global petroleum competition situation and the trend is an important prerequisite to determine oil-gas strategies. The paper deeply analyzes the oil industry growing history in China and the U.S. and made similar comparative historical reference in order to objectively select and design China’s oil strategies.As the global economy is gradually resuscitating, exploration and development investment activities revive again, global oil remaining proved reserves step into the slow growth stage. Global oil-gas market after the crisis periods is in restorative prosperity, consumer demand rebounds abruptly, resource supply rises overall, and market price is in high level. Autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) is used to build global oil reserves growth model, global oil production growthmodel by ARMA; Least square method and exponential smoothing method are utilized to establish Chinese regional production models, and oil consumption forecasting model. These models quantify global and Chinese resources growth prospects and consumption patterns in normal conditions. This paper proposes Chinese supply structure goals of "Domestic 2 hundred millions, overseas 3 hundred millions", and points out that South Ocean deepwater is one crucial region for new incremental oil -gas strategy in marine period, and The Qinghai-Tibet Plateau and the East China Sea deep-water is one coming oil-gas strategic area.American is still the dominant force in global oil system,its oil-gas strategy of "hegemony peace" is still the decisive variable to influence oil and gas demand situation in main resource countries and consumer countries, it also determines largely China’s oil-gas strategic choices. Since the United States is in the decline of the overall strength in the Middle East, and in the growing intention on Africa’s resources, the paper proposes that China should strengthen the cooperation of energy with the Middle East countries while insisting on oil and gas from diversified sources. China shall seriously carry out extensive, multimode, wide economic and trade and hydrocarbon cooperation with central Asia and some countries in the Caspian Sea, especially Russia, while China actively participates in the African hydrocarbon cooperation and competition. China shall timely expand South America oil &gas markets and North America non-traditional resource market. In order to Ensure the country’s strategic target realization, some suggestions are given to strengthen national naval ocean quick combat ability,improve the modernization mobility of relevant armed forces, China’s military power to influence and the support ability of oil-gas strategic channels. Chinese overall petroleum strategy in Marine period is "Stable continents,breakthrough in deep-water and development overseas"; Chinese internationalization development strategy is "Strengthening the Middle East, striving for the Africa, developing the Central Asia, pioneering others".
Keywords/Search Tags:Globalization, oil-gas, U.S. power, the deep water of South China Sea, energy cooperation, China strategy
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