Research On Optimal Operation Of Joint Water Supply Of Reservoir Group In Middle-down Streams Of Luan River

The optimal operation of joint water supply of reservoir group is a big and complicated system optimization problem. Based on the geography, climate and hydrology of middle-down streams of Luan River, the social and economic features of Luan River water-supplying areas, and the actual situation of three reservoirs of Panjiakou, Daheiting, and Taolinkou and three cities of Tianjin, Tangshan and Qinghuangdao, under the guidance of system science and methodology, with integrated application of the theoretical methods of hydrology, risk analysis evaluation, fuzzy recognition, and mathematic statistics, the joint operation of supplying water from Luanhe River by Panjiakou, Daheiting and Taolinkuo Reservoirs is analyzed and studied in this paper.1) Based on the annually actual inflow of reservoirs which divert water from Luan River, inflow series trend features of Luan River Diversion reservoirs have been verified and analyzed with sliding average method and Kendall rank correlation verification method. Generally, inflow of every reservoir is on the trend of decline, especially after 1990's, declining trend is obvious.2) Through the analysis of joint water supply from three reservoirs of Panjiakou, Daheting and Taolinkou in the middle-down streams of Luan River, with the consideration of current water supply situation and water resources condition after diverting water from the South to the North, the joint water supply operation schemes of the three reservoirs under every water supply condition are studied out, reservoir system is optimized and operated through aggregation-decomposition algorithm,and finally the operation result of every scheme is analyzed by dynamic planning method.3) Based on the Luan River water diversion reservoir joint optimal operation result, the operation scheme is classified into two types. The first type is the scheme that could meet water demands of all sides, and the second type is the scheme that could not meet the water demands of all sides. For the first type, optimization model need not to be applied for the evaluation and selection of scheme, and for the second type, fuzzy optimization model need to be applied for the evaluation and selection of scheme.4) Under the current water allocation principle and the condition of joint optimal water supply operation, the scenarios analysis method is applied to make risk analysis of reservoir joint water supply operation. From the calculation result, under the condition of not changing water supply principle, the risk of water deficiency during water supply is high, but, the risk of water deficiency during water supply decreases greatly through optimal joint operation.5) Under the two states of current water supply and water supply after South-to-North Water Transfer Project, through the change of water supply quantity after independent operation and joint optimal operation, benefit variation of every city is analyzed, the benefit of water-receiving areas and industries is estimated, and the rational benefit distribution scheme is brought forward.6) Based on the inflow analysis of Panjiakou Reservoir and Taolinkou Reservoir, Copula method is adopted to calculate the encounter frequency of wetness and dryness of two reservoirs'inflow. The frequency method is applied to divide the wetness and dryness of the runoff. The encounter between wetness and dryness are divided into 9 types of states, and the corresponding encounter frequencies under 9 types of states are respectively calculated according synchronous wetness-dryness and asynchronous wetness-dryness.