Fuzzy-ahp-based Reservoir Operation Risk Analysis

Water conservancy and hydropower resources is very rich in our country. We has built more than eighty thousands reservoirs since the founding of our country. These reservoirs have played an important role in our country's economic construction and social development. But, with the growth of engineering running time, many reservoirs exposed the disease and defects and part of the reservoir has been in limit operation state. Bring serious threats for people's lives, property and society development in the lower reaches. The safety of the reservoir operation risk issue has caused the social from all walks of life and all levels of government attention.This article introduces the related concepts and methods of risk analysis Proposed the risk analysis is not only consider the possibility of risk events, but also should consider the consequences and influence of accident. This subject combine the analytic hierarchy process and the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation to quantitative calculation and analysis the possibility of reservoir operation risk events and influence consequences. On the basis of which building the risk analysis model of the reservoir and formulating the analysis steps. The main contents include:On the basis of statistics analysis for reservoir dam crash reason in domestic and abroad, determine the impact indexes for safe operation of the dam. Using fuzzy hierarchical analysis theory to quantitative calculation and analysis these index, and order the influence factors for safe operation of the dam. Based on this to determine the risk level of dam operation.This article research the loss of life, economic losses, social environment and related problems, Divide classification for the effect factors of dam operation. Ensure the weight of each consequence factors in AHP. According to the investigation collected of statistical data determine membership of each factor by experienced experts. And comprehensive evaluation the consequences of dam crashing.According to the definition of reservoir-risk analysis. Building the risk analysis system of reservoir operation based on the dam operation-risk model and consequences of dam crashing. And reference other industry related indicators to formulate the risk rating standard of reservoir operation.Analysis the risk of Xiaojie reservoir operation state in this model; And applying the model to order risk for7(a) type reservoirs in Chuxiong. Provide the reference to allocate limited maintenance funds.This paper puts forward of the reservoir operation risk analysis method, which not only consider the engineering structure safety risk, but also think of the consequences risk of dam operation. Research reservoir as a engineering and social mutual feedback system, which more accord with the operation of the reservoir in the actual role. The preliminary results can be as a model for reservoir dam safety appraisal to review or reference, also can be provided inspiration for similar projects.