Emergency Mechanism And Integration Methods Of Risk Assessment For Hazardous Materials Transportation

Hazardous Materials Transportation Emergencies (HMTE) are a category of disaster and incidents, its researches belong to emergency area. Although HMTE are being frequent, researches in this field are difficult to be found. Thus HMTE is chosen as a research object by this paper. And some methodologies and theories are applied, such as the fuzzy mathematics, the analytic hierarchy process and the integration theory and so on, to finish the research about mechanism of HMTE and integration methods of risk assessment from different angles.First of all, Concept of Emergency Management involve in HMTE was put forward as well as defined by this dissertation based on a lot of analyzing and distinguishing of similar researches results, which from different fields and countries. Secondly, the research contents were figured out according to the idea of Identification-Analysis-Evaluation of emergency, which contain the risk identification, Change Mechanism and lifecycle mode, risk assessment of HMTE. And all these research contents have been expatiated and demonstrated respectively.A risk identification system of "Human-Materials-Environment (H-M-E)" was established based on systems engineering theory. An original two-dimensional Causes-Results Theory was promoted to be three-dimensional Orbit Intersecting Theory, which can be utilized to illuminate mechanism and measurement of coupling; and Domino Theory from H·W·Heinrich was redefined into "Mechanism of Eliminate and Uncoupling", which extend the connotation and thought of original theory and was discussed by this dissertation.The latest research object "HMTE Mechanism" was considered and studied deeply in this dissertation from different change stages, which refer to occurrence, development and evolvement of HMTE after review of HMTE theory and the change rules of HMTE were summarized. Lifecycle Concept of HMTE was proposed, moreover its category and pattern descriptions were achieved. All these researches constitutes theoretical rudiment of HMTE mechanism system, and will become a foundation for further study and exploration.After finishing a series of basic theoretical research for HMTE found that it is a difficulty for setting up index systems and making risk assessment that human as one of assessment factors has no hazardous attribute, which is a great difference between human and hazardous materials while giving risk assessment. But, through reviewing and summarizing 109 HMTE cases, redefining same attributes of all assessment factors, this dissertation built a new and reasonable index system with H factors, which embody the importance of human factors. The assessment models were established and the risk assessments were finished finally. Based on the idea of integrated innovation, several assessment methods were selected by this paper, so that Fuzzy AHP, comprehensive assessment method, three-dimensional vector model and space eight divided model formed an integrated overall assessment and early warning methodology to solve the complicated problems about index systems with multi-level, multi-dimensional and multi-property etc. There is a very important and difficult problem is about how to determine weight. New method Fuzzy AHP software was applied to compute it. This not only skips judgments and test process in assessments, but also mitigates influence from subjectivity of experts. And all the assessment procedures showed by corporations' cases studies in this dissertation.Finally, emergency management procedure and operations models were discussed and found in order to ensure effective emergency management and operations. To sum up, evolvement mechanism and the methodology of risk assessment for HMTE had been demonstrated and studied by the numbers starting from the carding of existing theory in all fields and different countries. Rudiments of the basic and theoretical system have shaped and foundations for further study also have formed by this dissertation.