Study Of Urban Fire Risk And Urban Fire Protection Ability

City , the center of politics, economy and culture , is the main base of modernization construction. It plays an important role in the development of civil economy and society., Large-scale high-rise buildings and manufacture enterprises were built with the fast development of the urbanization . The scale of facilities such as airports, transportation stations and wharfs in city get biger and biger . Once fire happens, it will not only bring tremendous economic losing for both people and the cociety , but also cause much loss of people's lives and endanger blight of social stability. Fire disaster is inevitable for any city and trends to increase with the development of economy and enrichment of material resources, but the vulnerability of a city can be changed. As long as city possesses enough defensive ability for fire disaster, it can alleviate the harmfulness to city caused by conflagration.This work mainly focus on three aspects: the research of city fire risks , the research on the ability of urban fire protection, the research on optimization of urban fire protection.On the research of fire risk, disaster-causing factors and hazard inducing environment of city fire are discussed. Fire risk criterion and assessment method are researched. According to fire statistics in recent years, dangerous degree of fire and fire prevention capability of city, fire risk evaluation system is established on the basis of fuzzy synthetical evaluation method. Evaluation on fire risk in Haikou city is carried out.On the research of urban fire protection ability, the main body of the thesis improves fire department ability of resisting and defending fire .Analysis and research on city fire status in recent years is emphasized. Approaches to alleviate city fire losses and strengthen urban fire protection ability are analyzed, with starting point of economics, as well as the investment of strengthening urban fire protection ability. In addition, on the basis of analyzing the factors which affect the urban fire protection ability and annotation with sustainable development angle, indexes which are easy for performing and quantization are found and a urban fireproof ability criterion system is set up. This criterion system consists of 3 first grade indicators and 10 second grade indicators. First grade indicators include urban features influence factor, urban fire supervision ability, fire fighting and rescuing capability and society management capability. On the basis of urban fire protection criterion system, principle of systematic evaluation, common theories and general procedures are discussed. By use of AHP, evaluation on the urban fire protection and analysis on the weight of each index are carried out, key elements which can improve fireproof ability of city are discovered. It can service for the planning of city disaster prevention and reduction, resource allocation and the construction of urban fire-fighting installations. Besides, method of fire protection ability evaluation based on neural network is discussed. Neural network has the properties of self-learning, self-organizing and self-adapting which make neural network acceptable for making decision in inaccurate and fuzzy knowledge environment. On the basis of these advantages, the neural network can be used to be the effective tool which can solve the dynamic and nonlinear problems in evaluation of urban fire protection. It provides a new thinking in the fire safety evaluation research.On the research of optimization of urban fire protection ability, Firstly, on the basis of safety economics theory, with discussion of accounting methods of fire loss in urban fire protection ability optimization and the affect of city expand on fire loss, the cost-benefit model of city fire are researched and optimization objective of fire protection ability which centralize on optimal fire safety investment is set up. Secondly, application of marginal method in urban fire safety investment is researched. Taking the optimization of fire safety investment as the target, this paper tries to analyze the fire loss and balance of fire safety investment, and the optimization effect of optimization tactics which is proposed for urban fire protection ability is discussed.Finally, prospects of development trend of urban protection ability evaluation and optimization are discussed simply.