Study On Comprehensive Evaluation Theory And System Dynamics Simulation For The Project Of Small Hydropower Replacing Firewood For Ecology Protection

The project of small hydropower replacing firewood for ecology protection (SHPF) is a public interests project that consolidate the achievements of returning land for farming to forestry and solve the problem of the fuel for people life. At present, the experimental unit work of SHPF project is just start, the study on evaluation of ecology environmental benefits, determination of electricity price and comprehensive evaluation is little. So it has very important academic value and practical meaning. This thesis use the technical route that combine the theoretic study and case analysis, based on the material of home and abroad, use the cross theory of the resources and environmental economics, ecology economics, ecology, hydrology and water resources, waterpower utilization, rural energy and system engineering, and take the magedang in shanxi province as a example to make a deep study in ecology benefits, electricity pricing, comprehensive evaluation and system dynamics simulation. The main achievements are as follow:(1) Power demand without SHPF is forecasted by Grey System; Take the measure of combining stratified sampling and typical survey to make a survey analysis of the energy structure in Magedang, the results show that before the SHPF project carry out; the main fuel of peasant life in experimental area is firewood, and the firewood mainly form the natural reserve, state owned forest, public forest; After carry out the SHPF project, the replacing fuel price accordance with the peasant afford ability, and people life energy gradually developing into use the electricity as main fuel; Because the most SHPF projects are run-of-river power station, short of electricity in dry season, so we should adjust measures to local conditions and found energy complement system.(2) This thesis studies the method of the economic increasing effect of SHPF project. From the expenses of the SHPF construction and the input of labor, construction material and machine decrement, use directory analysis method study the economic increasing effect of construction SHPF to national economy. Use region investment multiplier method analyse the economic increasing effect of consumption process to GDP. The results show that as create job opportunity and increasing GDP, the construction of SHPF not only developing the natural resources, but also increasing the opportunity of local peasant to work and promoting the development of economy of experimental area.(3) This thesis studied the method of ecology benefits evaluation, found model based on promote people healthy life level, reduce carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide. Divided the benefits to water-holding, soil and water conservation, oxygen-making, carbon dioxide and sulfur dioxide absorbing and atmosphere purification benefit. First adopt carbon-storage method to calculate the total amount of carbon dioxide emission. Compare with traditional growth method, this method avoids repeatable calculation by considering forest breathing. Preventive expenditure approach, production cost approach and other method are used to...