Research On Short-term Optimal Dispatching And Electricity Price Bidding Strategies Of Cascaded Hydropower Stations

This paper is concerning with the research on theory, method and application ofthree parts, which are electricity price bidding and short-term optimal dispatching ofcascaded hydropower stations and electricity price forecasting. The major work of thisdissertation is outline as following:In the first part, the basic theory and development of ant algorithm are introduced.Based on the main theory of ant algorithm and aiming at the characteristics ofshort-term optimal dispatching of cascaded hydropower stations, improved antalgorithm is put forward by using the crossover and mutation of genetic algorithm andthe technique of adaptive search radius. Then a minimum water consumption modelbased on the improved ant algorithm is constructed, which includes start-up &shut-down optimization sub-model and load distribution optimization sub-model inorder to realize the two aims together. In start-up & shut-down optimizationsub-model, feasibility-checking method and redundancy-checking method areintroduced, so the optimization difficulty is reduced, the search speed and efficiencyare enhanced. At last, by the application to the Longyangxia-Lijiaxia cascadedhydropower stations and the Shuoduogang cascaded hydropower stations, thefeasibility and practicability of the constructed models is validated, and optimaldispatching programs are also attained.In the second part, this paper analyzes the characteristics and importance ofelectricity price forecasting, and also expounds the theory and method in this area indetail. On the basis of existing data, BP model in ANN for electricity price forecastingis constructed, and the forecasting precision is also improved by usingLevenberg-marquart method. Based on fuzzy theory, this dissertation takes advantageof fuzzy clustering and fuzzy neuron network to do electricity price forecasting, inorder to remedy the shortage of low precision by the BP model in break points. At last,examples are used to demonstrate the feasibility and availability of the constructedmodels, which gains good forecasting results.In the third part, this paper introduces the basic theory of operation rules andbidding modes of electricity market. By the analysis to the bidding strategies ofgenerators, bidding strategies for cascaded hydropower stations in electricity marketare put forward, and a whole short-term optimal dispatching model is also constructed.In this model, this dissertation choose probability distribution to simulate pricebidding of generators, and take advantage of the Monte Carlo method to simulate thecourse of price sorting randomly. It also considers different generation cost ofdifferent stations in maximum profit model. At last, the whole dispatching course ofcascaded hydropower stations in electricity market is simulated, which attains goodexpected price results and dispatching programs. Then by the analysis to the optimalresults, the advantage and disadvantage of the constructed models are pointed out,which establishes well base for future research or real dispatching.