An Application Study Of Theories And Methods Of Reservoir Operation For Forecasted Flood

School: Management School Specialty: Management Science& EngineeringAdvisor: Professor Li guang quan CET-6 Certificate: Passed Postgraduate: Industry Master, Tianjin Polytechnic UnversitySince 1950s ,as a consequence of the birth and development of systematic engineering ,GIS, remote sensing technology,computer technology and communication technology, non-engineering means of flood prevention acquired its own concept purporting to transmit the hydrometeorological data collected by remote sensing to attempering center to process through satellites,radars and computers .This literature expatiates the following :(1) On the basis of the above mentioned model ,this paper defines drainage area as a linear reservoir Therefore ,the formula of water quantity equilibrium and sluicing-discharging can be expressed as : dS(t)/dt=P(t)-E(t)-Q(t)=R(t)-Q(t) and S(t)=KQ(t). This formula is the strict hydrological ,physical description of instantaneous process of raining and water-running ,on the basis of which a daily- flux model with hydrological, physical concept can be made and relevant calculation methods can be found out .(2) The key problem to the application of Muskingum Approach , in another word ,there exists non-linear effect . Therefore , to meet the demand of practical engineering to a more satisfactory extent , it is vital to convert the linear formula in Muskingum model to a non-linear one . This literature suggests a non-linear Muskingum model which can exactly reflect the above mentioned effect and offers an effective approach : mixed generating arithmetic (abbreviated as MGA) which is capable of estimating the parameters K ,X, M in a non-linear Muskingum Approach with considerable accuracy and high speed of convergence .(3) The idea suggested in this paper of converting flood into utilizable resource ,attempering flood by engineering means and supervising human behaviors in the flooded area.To overcome the various barriers arising from ideology ,systems,technology and economy which the establishment of risk management system of flood will be confronted with , this paper also suggests a statistical approach to estimate extremum and The concept of Gray- Uncertainty risk in figuring flood risk and analyses the severe harmfulness of accidents of extremum risk ,furthermore ,supplements and perfects present quantity- analyzing method of risk loss .