Research On Surface Transportation Regional Evacuation Management Based On Cell Transmission Model

With the rapid economic development and continuously improving urban modernization, there is not only a significant increase in population size and density in cities (especially big cities), but also the concentration of construction, production and wealth. At the same time, cities also exist as a great carrier of disaster. The larger the city and the higher the level of modernization, there will be more potential types of disaster events, higher occurrence frequency of unexpected events and more alarming endanger consequences.To effectively deal with the serious consequences caused by unconventional emergencies, the implementation of large-scale evacuations becomes more and more an effective way to response to emergencies in urban and regional areas. Sudden emergencies often require evacuating residents in the affected region safely and orderly to shelters in a relatively short period of time, and to minimize the total evacuation duration, reduce casualties and property losses. As the obvious characteristics of complexity in the nature of sudden emergency and potential hazards of secondary derivatives, as well as evacuation of the affected population acts of randomness and complexity, making a large-scale evacuation of the regional issue has become the key and difficult problem of emergency management research.First of all, this paper gives a comprehensive literature review in surface transportation research field, systematically investigates the function and role of the evacuation traffic management in disaster management. An integrated regional evacuation traffic management modeling framework is presented; next, in view of the high dynamics, randomness of evacuation traffic flow, this paper conduct the analysis of basic modeling on evacuation traffic flow based on Cell Transmission Theory (CTM). Also, the classic CTM is revised to adopt the demand of large-scale evacuation modeling and solving. A formal algorithm of cell-connector evacuation road network construction is presented; next, based on CTM and R-CTM, basic evacuation traffic dynamic assignment models are presented to predict the pattern of evacuation flow in space-time dimension. Contra-flow lane, staged evacuation scheduling and elimination of intersection conflicts are imported to extend the basic traffic assignment models to form an integrated model of the evacuation traffic management; finally, an empirical analysis of evacuation traffic management in the local road network in Changchun city area is conducted. Based on the research results, the strategy proposals of evacuation traffic management in given planning year are presented.From the road transportation view, this paper adopts the optimization theory, CTM theory and system science to deeply study the problem of surface transportation regional evacuation traffic management. The research results not only can compensate for deficiencies in emergency management theory, but also to improve surface traffic management department emergency response capability, crisis management capacity and improve the overall urban disaster prevention and mitigation capacity, so this research has important theoretical significance and practical value.