| To analyze the causes or driving forces of environmental change is the premise and foundation for sustainable development management.Based on related studies at home and abroad,we discussed the trajectory of environmental change along with economic development or over time,and the main driving forces and their variation tendency by stages;proposed a Systematic Concept Model involving various factors driving environmental change and their interactive relationship to study the driving forces of China's environmental change;developed Natural Capital Consumption Index(NCCI) to depict the tendency of China's environmental change,and then combined with simplified Systematic Concept Model,an empirical analysis of the driving forces of China's environmental change has been respectively conducted by using grey relation analysis for the period 1990-2005 and by historical analysis methods for different periods since 1949;Finally,we also proposed some countermeasures and suggestions to deal with China's current environmental problems,combining with governance theory and the main problems facing China's traditional environmental management pattern.The main conclusions are as follows:Firstly,starting from IPAT identity,we have proved that environmental change process along with economic development or over time generally follow in sequence three inverted U shape curves in the long run,that is,the inverted-U shape curve of environmental impact intensity,environmental impact per capita,and total environmental impact respectively.According to three inverted U shape curves,the environmental change process can be divided into four stages,that is,stage before the peak of environmental impact intensity,stage between environmental impact intensity and environmental impact per capita,stage between environmental impact per capita and total environmental impact,and stage behind total environmental impact.Secondly,the leading driving forces are also different in different stages of environmental change.Taking carbon emission as an example,before the peak of environmental impact intensity,the growth of resource consumption or pollution emissions is mainly driven by those technical advances which are usually resource-intensive or pollution-intensive,by economic growth in the stage between environmental impact intensity and environmental impact per capita,and by technical advances which are resource-saving or pollution reducing in the stage between environmental impact per capita and total environmental impact,and also the stage behind total environmental impact.Thirdly,China's environmental problems,of course,affected by innate factors such as ecological vulnerability,but more importantly,are acquired by the joint effect of many factors including economic,social and institutional factors etc.It is indicated from the empirical analysis of the driving forces of China's environmental change in 1990-2005 that among the macro-economic factors influencing environmental change, structural factor occupy the first place,economic scale factor ranks second and economic-technical factor ranks third.The concrete factors,according to their contribution to China's environmental change from big to small,are consumption level,environmental protection,urbanization,population quality,investment pattern, international trade structure,consumption structure,population growth,technical advance,decision making and management respectively.Among these factors,the former usually plays more direct and important role in environmental change than the latter.Fourthly,in different historical development stages of China,each driving force, no matter its contribution to environmental change at that time or the mode of action, has changed apparently with the following tendency:(1) Institutionally,with China's transition from a centrally planned to a market-driven economy,the causes of environmental problems has transformed from the government failure-dominated position to the position where government failure and market failure co-exist,even market failure plays a leading role.(2) Technically,although with the progress of science and technology,China's economic growth mode has changed from being extremely extensive to relative extensive,the whole technical level is still comparatively backward with the poorer resource and environmental performance than developed countries.(3) Demographically,the contribution of population growth to increased environmental pressure has reduced since 1970s and now is taking effect in a more indirect way.However,the constraints of relatively low-level population quality on environmental protection have taken on gradually.(4) Economically, environmental pressure led by rapid economic growth has grown exponentially,but the negative effect of economic structural shift on resource and environment has changed from short-term and massive impact to long-term and fundamental impact.(5) From consumption perspective,the negative effect of improved consumption standards and upgraded consumption structure on resource and environment has increased markedly.Especially,the improvement of consumption level has become the factor in the first place which drives environmental change.(6) Commercially,the rapid development of international trade has become a new driving force of China's environmental change since 1978,and environmental pressure induced by extensive growth pattern and irrational trade structure has been continuously enlarging.(7) From the perspective of urbanization,impact and pressure exerted by accelerated urbanization process on China's resources and environment has risen substantially, which has extended from the local to regional even nationwide.(8) From the perspective of environment protection,although having launched environment protection for over 30 years,and made many of polices,rules,laws and regulations to combat against aggravated environmental pollution and ecological destruction, China's environment protection still severely lag behind,which directly lead to continuously environmental deterioration. |
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