Research On Modeling The Vulnerability In A Human-environment System Under Urbanization Progress

Economic development and modernization in our country have created significant urbanization problems in both theoretical fronts and policy fronts that need to be solved. The purpose of this dissertation is to develop a model that can measure region urbanization vulnerability quantitatively and unambiguously, and demonstrate its application by applying it to Shanghai. This dissertation can be divided into three parts as follows:Chapters 1 and 2 describe the pre-existing research content on vulnerability. After reviewing the footprint of vulnerability, this dissertation will present a theoretical reconceptualization of vulnerability from a region system complexity angle. At the same time, it will highlight new insights into the conceptualization of the vulnerability of human-environment systems and identify critical points of convergence of what otherwise might be characterized as disparate fields of research.In Chapters 3 and 4, based on the reconceptualization of vulnerability, the heart of this dissertation is introduced:the urban vulnerability assessment (UVA) framework. This framework will include the elements of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability as the core of the reconceptualization and dissect the dynamics of and mutual interactions between social and biophysical vulnerabilities. By principal components analysis, four key drivers have been identified in this framework:(1) the self propensity driver, (2) transportation driver, (3) demographic driver, and (4) economic driver. The UVA model will be developed by integrating GIS, Monte Carlo method and Cellular Automata (CA) to assess vulnerability by these four drivers in human-environment system under urbanization processTo examine the applicability of UVA, Chapter 5 presents a case study of Shanghai, in which the concepts and models developed are applied using UVA model as a quantitative tool for measuring vulnerability. GIS and other real data from 1985,1990,1995, and 2000 are used to produce UVA results for those years, with which the CA model is run with Monte Carlo calibration to simulate a 2005 prediction. This prediction is then compared with the real 2005 vulnerability map of Shanghai, validating the UVA model. Pre-research provided an in-depth look into the social and natural characteristics of Shanghai. Based on the integrated studies we did, we emphasize social-economic attributes to vulnerability, not only the natural attributes. We have made some improvements in this field as follows:●According to the social and natural characteristics of Shanghai, we established an urban vulnerability analysis model (UVA) on the basis of exposure, sensitivity and adaptability. The UVA is scientific, and operational. Because most of the weights and equations are regressed from statistical data, without human impact, results between cities will be more comparable.●To avoid the effect of measuring differences between experts, in this dissertation we didn't use any scoring method. Instead we used cumulative contribution from principal components analysis to identify driving forces, and decided parameters by GA method.●In CA model we adopt the smallest meaningful cells to derived and standardized data from micro and macro scale. This cell size can reflect the essential characteristics of the studied objects.●The predicted results compared to real vulnerability data very closely (R2=0.94). Although some details were missing, the general patterns were captured fairly well. This means that long-term predictions can be put into use.The long term objectives of this research are to develop a methodology and operational procedure applicable on the level of the individual metropolitan (1) to quantitatively and unambiguously describe and analyze the impacts of urbanization on its territory, ecosystems, and social systems, and (2) to provide instruments or tools to design, explore and evaluate policy measures and policy interventions to prevent or alleviate undesirable impacts.