Studies For Appraising Geology Disaster System And The Synthesis Forecast Model Of The Metal Mines

Metal mine mining the destruction as well as to the people normalproduction,the life influence which creates to the environment is dayby day widespread,it not only creates in the economical the loss,personnel's casualties,simultaneously also causes the ecologicalenvironment worsening.At present progressed regarding the metal minegeology disaster research is actually slow,along with the our countryindustry unceasing development,regarding each kind of metal demandunceasing increase,the metal mine mining step in speeds up,from thisthe disaster question which produces already seriously affects theperiphery people's survival,therefore regarding metal mine geologicaldisaster question processing imperative.The metal mine engineeringgeology disaster receives the many kinds of factors the influence,also unceasingly appears regarding the metal mine geology disasterappraisal and the forecast method and the theory,these methods or thetheory only are aims at the geological disaster some aspect to carryon the appraisal forecast,has the limitation.Moreover processes themulti-factors with the sole method or the theory question itself tohave one-sidedness,also cannot meet the requirements in the precisionaspect,therefore carries on the reasonable appraisal method to themetal mine the research to have the vital significance.In order tocorrectly appraised the mine the risk and the destruction loses,thistopic in the analysis engineering geology disaster basic attributefoundation,through to the metal mine main geology disaster formationmechanism analysis and the union project example, discovers the maingeological disaster the general regularity,simultaneously tothemetal mine actual investigation and study,collects to the metal mineengineering geology disaster historical disaster material and thelatent disaster actual data,to causes metal mine engineering geologydisaster each kind of factor,utilizes each kind of model and themethod carries on the generalized analysis,has established the metalmine synthesis risk appraisal analysis model,And divides the metalmine risk for is stable,stably,the danger,the extremely dangerousfour ranks,:Through to the mine ecology system appraisal, theeconomic loss system appraisal,and with the multi-theories unionmethod overall assessment forecast model,loses the disaster thedegree and the life loss degree divides for is low,center,the highthree ranks;And uses the synthesis risk to the domestic 29 metalsmine engineering geology disaster to appraise the model and thedestruction loss model has carried on the judgment,according to eachmine actual judgment result,has selected the optimized preventing andcontrolling measure.Not only had indicated using the unified model to each mine analysis judgment the pessimistic mathematics theory,the fuzzy mathematicstheory and the nerve network system has the unity,is suitable to themetal mine security evaluation,moreover had and implements thegovemment to provide the scientific basis and the technicalfeasibility for the metal mine engineering geology disasterprevention.Thus it can be seen,this article establishes the multi-theories tie legitimately in the system appraised the aspect has theextremely widespread application value.