Evaluation Of Agricultural Enterprise Value Based On Monte Carlo Simulation

Due to the biological periodicity of agricultural production,the blindness of production under small-scale peasant economy,and the sudden disease of animals and plants,agricultural production activities and the value of agricultural enterprises have great uncertainty.As one of the evaluation methods with high recognition in practice,the income method evaluation model is based on static data to make predictions,which can not well reflect the future constantly changing macro economy and external market,so there is some room for improvement when it is applied in the evaluation of agricultural enterprises.The commercial chicken industry is an important part of agriculture,and its development fluctuation has obvious color of agricultural industry.In this paper,Xiaoming Agriculture and Animal Husbandry Co.LTD,a representative listed company in the industry of commodity generation egg chicks,is selected as a case enterprise and its enterprise value is evaluated by monte Carlo simulation and improved income method model.In terms of specific operation,the main variables in the traditional income model,such as operating income,operating cost,discount rate and sustainable growth rate,are divided and refined.Secondly,monte Carlo simulation technology is introduced to dynamically predict the key parameters obtained after splitting,that is,order of magnitude sampling is carried out according to the probability distribution characteristics of its historical data,as the basis for subsequent prediction.Finally,the above parameters are put into the model with the help of computer software to obtain the evaluation results of interval estimation.Study found that: first,the historical data of the monte carlo simulation technique to parameter predicting the future change of probability distribution as its basis,and the selected parameters is better to consider the macro economy,the external market and the important factors affecting the development of agricultural enterprises,able to solve the agricultural enterprise development to a certain extent value uncertainty and volatility in the process of problem.Second,the evaluation results of interval estimation obtained by monte Carlo simulation technology can contain more effective information,which is also convenient for report users to make better use of the evaluation results.This paper provides a new idea for the evaluation of agricultural enterprise value.The monte Carlo simulation technology is incorporated into the traditional income method evaluation model,and the order of magnitude sampling is carried out according to the historical probability distribution of relevant variables.Combining qualitative and quantitative analysis,a more widely applicable conclusion of interval estimation is obtained.To a certain extent,it alleviates the subjectivity of the selection of evaluation parameters and the singleness of the result value in the traditional income method,and enrichis and expands the theory of asset evaluation.