Research On Spillover Effects Of Housing Price In Three Major Metropolitan Areas In China

The development of foreign metropolitan circles is relatively mature.In the international metropolitan area represented by New York,London,and Tokyo,the intra-city transportation network is widely distributed,and the use of traffic as a link promotes the industrial synergy between cities.At present,the process of urbanization in China is developing rapidly.With the continuous planning and improvement of the transportation network construction,the core cities represented by the Guangzhou-Shenzhen-Shenzhen region have gradually emerged the phenomena of population outflow and industrial transfer.The future will be a golden period for the rapid development and rise of the metropolitan area.The construction of a metropolitan area with traffic as a link will have a far-reaching effect on the spillover effect of housing prices in the first and second tier cities,and will be conducive to the formation of a healthy and long-term real estate market mechanism.The core of this paper is to study the correlation between geographic location and housing price spillover effects.Facts have proved that commuting time is one of the important factors affecting the spillover effect of housing prices.The introduction of house prices through the “central-periphery” model examines whether the core cities in the three metropolitan areas have spillover effects on housing prices in their surrounding cities.Research shows that there are spillover effects on housing prices in the core cities of the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan areas.And a "relative advantage area" has been obtained;when a certain commuting time is reached,there will be a spillover effect of housing prices in "sub-core" cities on other cities.The commuting time between Beijing and the surrounding cities in the Tianjin metropolitan area and the local housing prices has only a simple linear relationship.The intensity of house price spillover effects is inversely proportional to the commuting time,that is,tThe shorter the commuting time from neighboring cities to Beijing,the more significant Beijing's housing price spillover effect on neighboring cities is.But from the perspective of correlation coefficient and saliency,the housing price spillover effect is weaker than that of the two metropolitan areas of the Pearl River Delta and Yangtze River Delta.Through the Granger causality analysis,China's metropolitan area can be divided into three levels: The first level is that Shanghai and Shenzhen are the core "source" cities for the housing market within the metropolitan area,and the second is Guangzhou and Nanjing for the housing market.The “source” cities are the third level;the third level is the “source” cities of Zhuhai,Suzhou,Wuxi,Jiaxing,Zhenjiang,Yangzhou and Wuhu as the residential market.In the short term,when the housing price of a “source” city in the first-level changes,it first drives the secondary “source” cities to fluctuate,and then drives the fluctuation of housing prices in other cities through these secondary “source” cities.The transmission path of housing price spillovers in the Pearl River Delta and the Yangtze River Delta metropolitan area generally reflects a law that the economically more developed cities have stronger endogenous factors for housing price increases due to their own industrial structure,population size,and public infrastructure and other resource advantages.Such as Suzhou,Shaoxing and other cities;then through the industrial upgrading transfer,population migration and the continuous improvement of the transportation network layout to drive price fluctuations in the surrounding sub-developed cities.The situation of the Tianjin-Tianjin-Metropolitan metropolitan area shows from the side that the basis for the proliferation benefits of the metropolitan area is industrial diffusion,and that the diffusion effect of the industry can bring about population migration,while the population is a long-term factor affecting housing prices,within the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei metropolitan area.The majority of cities are lack of innovative industry development models,and Beijing is a political and cultural center.Its economic radiation and industrial transfer capacity are limited,leading to Beijing's spillover effect on housing prices in surrounding cities is not significant.