Analysis On Water Rights Transaction Based On Game Theory And Risk Theory

In the situation where the contradiction between the supply and demand of water resources is increasing day by day,the rational allocation of water resources has become the key to alleviating the crisis of water resources.Water rights transaction is an effective means to achieve optimal allocation of water resources.Studying water rights transaction has important significance for alleviating supply and demand pressures of water resources,realizing sustainable utilization of water resources and sustainable economic and social development.The paper applies the game theory to establish a water rights transaction game model,and combines risk theory to construct a water rights transaction risk evaluation index system,and evaluates the water rights transfer party transaction risk.The water right transaction of the Yellow River water supply project in Weinan City of Shaanxi Province is used as an example to determine the water rights transaction price and water rights transaction risk through the water rights transaction game model and water rights transfer party transaction risk evaluation index system.The specific research contents and conclusions are as follows:(1)Based on the one-to-one water rights trading model established with discount rate and trade break risk,a one-to-one water rights trading bargaining game model considering water rights trading internal selection and external selection was constructed.The internal selection of the model influences the bargaining point of the bargaining.The external selection is reflected by the third-party competitor's bid.The water rights transaction breaks when the external option is greater than the bargaining equilibrium income;otherwise,the external option has no effect on the water rights transaction.(2)Considering the number of water rights demanders and water rights transferors,a multi-party water rights trading game model was constructed.The water rights trading game of a water rights transferor to multiple water rights demanders is a one-way auction game,high-bid water demanders get water rights,and the water rights transferor's revenue increases with the number of water rights demanders.Multiple-to-multiple water rights trading structured in terms of specific water rights transferor number n and water rights demander number m(n=m=2;n=3,m=2;n=2,m=3)In the game model,there exists the form of auction game and bargaining game.(3)On the basis of detailed analysis of the sources of water rights transaction risks,with reference to feedback from expert survey questionnaires,a comparatively perfect water rights trading risk assessment index system was established;the criteria layer in the index system includes water resources factors,social factors,economic factors,water use factors and transaction factors,14 specific indicators for the five risk factors constitute the indicator layer of the risk assessment system.The weight of each index in the risk assessment system is determined according to the expert's score in the AHP.The water risk transaction risk grade is divided according to the index weight and the integrated index of the numerical evaluation of the index's unification.When the comprehensive index is less than or equal to 0.5,the water rights transaction risk is low risk or lower risk;water rights trading with a comprehensive index greater than 0.5 is a higher risk or high risk trade.(4)A one-to-one water rights trading game for the Yellow River Water Supply Project in Weinan City,Shaanxi Province was analyzed.The bargaining price of water rights trading was calculated based on the water rights price determined by the full cost method,and it was compared with the water rights price determined by the comprehensive pricing method.The results show that when the probability of water rights transaction breaks is constant,the bargaining equilibrium price of water rights transaction increases with the increase of the ceiling price of water rights;when the water price ceiling price is determined,the equilibrium price increases with the increase of transaction breakage probability.The water rights price determined by the water rights comprehensive pricing model is 0.411 to 0.631 yuan/(m~3·a);in the water rights transaction bargaining,when the water rights trading break probability is 0.5,the ceiling price is 3.5 to 8.0 yuan/(m~3·a),the equilibrium price in one-on-one water rights transaction bargaining was 3.33 to 7.59 yuan/(m~3·a).The water rights transaction price determined by the water rights transaction bargaining model can better reflect the market value of water rights.(5)The water rights transaction risk evaluation index system was applied to qualitatively evaluate the trading risk of the water rights transfer party in the water right transaction of the Yellow River Water Supply Project in Weinan City,Shaanxi Province.In the water rights trading risk assessment index system of the Longnan Yellow River Water Supply Project,the largest weight of trading factors is 0.54;followed by the water resource factor and water use factor,the weights are 0.20 and 0.14 respectively,the social and economic factors have weights of 0.05 and 0.08 respectively.When the trading volume of water rights is 1.63×10~8m~3and the trading period is 25 years,the comprehensive index of the water rights trading risk appraisal of the water rights transferor is 0.52,which is a relatively high risk,and the transaction water volume can be adjusted to be less than 1.4×10~8m~3 or the trading period is less than 21 years,making transaction risk within an acceptable range.