| Kaihua County locates at the source of Qiantang River, where has been considered as an inescapable ecological barrier for the eastern part of China. Therefore, the strategy of sustainable development is much more depend on the ecosystem condition of Kaihua, and its benefits are much more important in Zhejiang Province and Yangtze River Delta. The advanced model evaluation methods and scenario technology assessments are applied in this research, the results would be for the important theoretical references to the eco-environment protection, also, predict the impact of land use change on ecosystem services of Kaihua Country. Furthermore, our research will offer corresponding protection countermeasures for the ecology and the environment development in this region in the future.This thesis takes Kaihua Country as the pilot area, the related data are chosen in 10 years(from 2000 to 2010) to analysis the pattern of land use, such as remote sensing data, meteorological data, elevation data, soil data, etc. Then three types ecosystem services are assessed, InVEST model is water yield, soil retention and biodiversity in 2000 and 2010, as then, Dyna-CLUE model is applied to predict scenarios of land use in the future, and assessed future ecosystem services based on scenarios of land use. The main conclusions of this study are follows:(1)During the 10 years from 2000 to 2010, forest and construction area increased, shrubbery, meadow, farmland, planting garden, wetland and bare land were reduced. The part of planting garden and shrubbery converted to forest, meadow converted to forest and construction land continuously. And the increase of forest was very significant.(2)Based on the data in 2010, owing to the spatial distribution of ecosystem services in Kaihua Country, the value about ecosystem services are very high in the northwest and southwest of Kaihua Country. In this place, forest area accounted for 83.540%, water yield accounted for 67.865%, soil retention accounted for 84.362%, however, sediment export accounted for 2.822% and the potential of soil erosion accounted for 9.954%. And in the National Park of Kaihua Country, water yield accounted for 57.544%, soil retention accounted for 63.877%, sediment export accounted for 69.726% and the potential of soil erosion accounted for 68.355%.(3)Based on the data in 2010, design scenarios of land use in the future: the baseline scenario, planning scenario and ecological protect scenario. Forest area in the three future scenarios increased, for example, forest increased area in ecological protect scenario's is maximum, the figure is 11959 hm2; shrubbery area reduced continuously, shrubbery area reduced in planning scenario is the biggest, the figure is 2915 hm2; meadow area reduced continuously, in baseline scenario, the trend of reduction is the maximum, the figure is 1255 hm2; Farmland area reduced continuously, in baseline scenario, the trend of reduction is the maximum, the figure is 9515 hm2; construction land area in the three future scenarios increased, construction land area increase in planning scenario is the maximum, the figure is 9936 hm2;(4)Compared with 2010,ecosystem services, baseline scenario's water yield increased by 1.598%, soil retention increased by 0.092%, sediment export decreased by 37.382%, potential of soil erosion decreased by 33.860% and habitat quality increased by 0.140%; In the planning scenario, water yield increased by 0.814%, soil retention increased by 0.112%, sediment export decreased by 41.371%, potential of soil erosion decreased by 36.030% and habitat quality increased by 0.821%; In the ecological protect scenario, water yield decreased by 2.965%, soil retention increased by 0.125%, sediment export decreased by 52.134%, potential of soil erosion decreased by 46.712% and habitat quality increased by 1.436%. |
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