| Water resources as an important component of the natural environment,is the basic condition for all living creatures,and they are also indispensable important resource of human activity,is an important factor in the environment.With the rapid development of industry and agriculture,and the improvement of people's living standard,human water demand continues to improve,the contradiction between people and water has become more and more acute,particularly in the arid and semi-arid in Northwest of China.In this background,our government is putting forward the severest water resources management policy.The core concept of the policy is to hold the three red line,which including the red line of the development and utilization of water resources,the red line of water efficiency control,the red line of water pollutant limits in a water function area.Uneven regional distribution of water resources,the overall performance is the southeast more,northwest less;Coastal more,less inland;Mountains more,plains less.There is also a different distribution of time in the same region,summer more than winter.So the study area is located in the northwest inland arid region,it is the water per capita is lower than the national average,which is one of the most water-scarce areas in China.Hutubi River Basin is a typical inland arid area,which located in the Tianshan mountain of Xinjiang Hutubi county,is located in the southern margin of the Junggar basin,is located in north latitude 43 ° 16 '~ 45 ° 20',longitude 86 ° 05'~ 87 ° 08'.Therefore,combined with the Hutubi River Basin's geographical factors,building the WEAP simulation evaluation model of water resources,exploring in real policy and development planning and constructing under the intervention of regional development,scheduling scientifically and rationally allocation of water resources,not only providing the basis future plan for water resources,but also can provide a scientific reference for other regional water resources deployment.The main conclusion is as follows,1.The WEAP model which is advanced and widely applied in the research of water resources management all over the world,is used in studying Hutubi River basin.the correlation coefficient R value and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient are used to assess the calibration results.The results show good adaptability,indicating WEAP model is fully applicable to Hutubi River Basin.2.If only considering the change of population growth,in high population growth and low-growth scenario,the total domestic water demand during the planning difference between 573,000 cubic meters;If only considering the change of industrial growth,in high industrial growth and low-growth scenario,the total industrial water demand during the planning difference between 52,976,000 cubic meters;If only considering the development of water saving technology,saving water powerfully or lightly makes the domestic water demand difference reached about 87,435,000 cubic meters in two different scenarios;If only considering the change of greening area,the two scenarios shows that the ecological water demand difference reached about 42,040,000 cubic meters.3.The model and calculation results show that the group mixed with industry developing steadily,saving water powerfully and greening moderately demand a minimum,its total water demand is 0.28 billion cubic meters,and the ratio of water deficiency is 20%.Meanwhile,the group mixed with industry developing rapidly,saving water powerfully and greening moderately lack a minimum,its total water demand is 0.29 billion cubic meters,and the ratio of water deficiency is15%.4.After assessment of all combination scenarios in WEAP of study area,the group mixed with industry developing steadily,saving water powerfully and moderately is thought the best development pattern of Hutubi River Basin,as this scenarios,the water resources can achieve the optimal allocation and can promote the harmonious development of society,and environment in Hutubi River Basin. |
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