| Water resource issues is not only related to the basic livelihood of social, ecological and environmental status, still an important factor in restricting economic development. With the global climate changing, modernization processing, urbanization developing and population growing all over the world,, the contradiction between the lack of freshwater resources and the social development has become more and more acute, particularly in the arid and semi-arid in Northwest of China as Ningxia Yellow River Basin in China, with scarce rainfall and high evaporation, the water balance of payments imbalanced, is one of the mostly lacking water resources areas. Therefore, as Ningxia Yellow River Basin’s geographical factors,building simulation evaluation model of water resources, developing a reasonable configuration, scheduling scientifically and rationally, allocation of water resources,,and to make the evaluation of future development plans, not only has a good practical significance, but also can provide a scientific reference for other regional water resources deployment.In this paper, on the basis of previous studies, establishing evaluation planning simulation model of the Ningxia Yellow River Basin’s Water System with WEAP (water evaluation and planning system)to explore under the intervening of human activities, how to make a regional development plan to achieve the optimal allocation of water resources in the area.The main conclusion as following:1.The WEAP model which is advanced and widely applied in the research of water resources management all over the world, is used in studying Ningxia Yellow River basin, the correlation coefficient R2value and Nash-Sutcliffe model efficiency coefficient are used to assess the calibration results. The results show good adaptability, indicating WEAP model is fully applicable to Ningxia Yellow River Basin.2.The result of single factor scenarios in year2030shows that:If only considering the change of population growth, in high population growth and low-growth scenario, the total domestic water demand during the planning difference between9,626,800cubic meters, the storage of groundwater has no obvious changes from until2023, and it shows an curve upward tendency. If only considering the change of industrial development speed, the industrial water demand difference reached about252,569,700cubic meters in two different scenarios, the storage of groundwater has obvious changes since2013, and it shows an curve downward tendency. If only considering the development of water saving technology, saving water powerfully or lightly makes the domestic water demand difference reached about1,572,186,400cubic meters in two different scenarios, the storage of groundwater will increased to7billion, and the river flow also increase obviously. If only considering the change of greening area, the two scenarios of it show that the ecological water demand difference reached about556,706,600cubic meters, the irrigation water would multiplied, it would bring strong pressure to the basin under the scenario of greening strongly.3The model and calculation results show that the group mixed with industry developing steadily, saving water powerfully and greening moderately demand a minimum, its total water demand is3.5billion cubic meters, and the ratio of water deficiency is21%. Meanwhile, the group mixed with industry developing rapidly, saving water powerfully and greening moderately lack a minimum, its total water demand is3.7billion cubic meters, and the ratio of water deficiency is18%. It shows that different combination styles will make different results.4After assessment of all combination scenarios in WEAP of study area, the group mixed with industry developing rapidly, saving water powerfully and greening moderately is thought the best development pattern of Ningxia Yellow River Basin, as this scenarios, the water resources can achieve the optimal allocation and can promote the harmonious development of society, economy and environment in Ningxia Yellow River Basin. |
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