Evaluation Of Water Resources Security Of Jinan City

Water is the source of human life, it's the basic needs for human survival. The growing populations, rapid development of industry and agriculture, growing society made human society more demand on water resources and require more high quality water at the same time. But because of unrestricted using of water resources and pollution, water resources can't meet the needs of social and economic development both in quantity and quality. So how to protect water resources security makes it better serve mankind is the urgent problem needs to be solution.This paper studies the security of water resources in Jinan City, objective assessments of the security situation of its water resources. So provides theoretical and practical basises for the rational development and utilization of water resources.The main contents and conclusions are as follows:1. The author analyzed the status of water resources in Jinan City, water resources Jinan City has the following characteristics: Water resources of Jinan City is severe shortage, water volume per capita of Jinan City in 2008 is 213.25 m~3, that is far below the value of world and accounts 1/10 for the value of national, water volume per capita of world is 7300 m~3. The regional distribution of water resources in Jinan City is very uneven, the total water resources and annual precipitation is 445 million m~3 and 1301 million m~3 in Zhangqiu City, but they are only 81 million m~3 and 496 million m~3 in Shanghe County. The utilization structure of water resources is irrational, resulting in more waste, in various water using projects, the volume of water using and water consumption for agricultural is larger, respectively are 904 million m~3 and 743 million m~3 but the volume of water using for environment is only 57 million m~3. Water environmnent pollution is serious, annual monitoring results indicate that rivers and lakes areâ…¤class or worse than Gradeâ…¤.2. The author analyzed the factors of water resources security in Jinan City using the principal component analysis method, the results showed: The main factors of water resources security in Jinan City are in three areas that respectively are social, and economics class, resource class. The social class factors including the wastewater emissions, the total population and the agricultural irrigation areas. The economics class factor main is the total output value. The resource class factors including the total water resources, the volume of water transferred from the Yellow River and the frequency of flood and drought disasters. The total population and the wastewater emissions impact water resources security greater.3. The author analyzed and forecasted water supply and demand situations of Jinan City at different guaranteed rates that are 50%, 75%, 95% in 2008 and 2020 year. The results showed that, in Jinan City in 2008, the supply is slightly surplus only at the 50% guaranteed rate, at 75% and 95% guarantee rates it is insufficient. But in 2020, the supplies are all insufficient at all three guarantee rates, and it is the greater of water shortage to ensure the higher rate. Therefor there are hidden dangers on the amount security of water resources in Jinan City.4. The author calculated the water resources carrying capacity using the principal component analysis method in Jinan City from 1999 to 2008. The results showed that, the water resources carrying capacity in Jinan City is low. But from 1999 to 2008 it shows fluctuated upward trend which indicate the water resources carrying capacity of Jinan City had improved. The water resources carrying capacity is important quantify of water resources security, so the resulta also reflect that the state of water resources is unsafe in Jinan City.5. The author constructed the index system of water resources security selected 21 indicators from water volume security, social security, economic security and environmental security based on analysising the factors of water security, then evaluated water security of Jinan City from 1999 to 2008 using the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method. The results showed: from 1999 to 2008 in Jinan City, water resources are in unsafe status, but it indicated a trend of gradual improvement.6. The author predicted the development trend of water resources security in Jinan City from 2009 to 2020 using Logistic Regression Model after evaluating the current water resources security in Jinan City. The forecast results showed: water resources security in Jinan City is gradually improved, the security situation is getting better. Finally the author proposed corresponding suggestions for the water resources security problems of Jinan City in order to improve the insecurity situation.