Research On Sustainable Utilization And Management Of Water Resources Based On The Grey Prediction

Water resources is an indispensable natural resource for the sustainable development of social economy. With the development of economy and society in Jinan City, water demand grows day by day, and Jinan City is water scarcity city and also faces the problem of water pollution and waste, the shortage of water resources has become an important factor which restricts the sustainable development of economy and society in Jinan City. Therefore, it is very necessary to study the balance between supply and demand of water resources and the countermeasures of sustainable utilization of water resources in Jinan City.This topic is based on the current situation in 2013, and 2017,2020,2030 for the planning year on supply and demand forecasting. Forecasting demand of water resources with different guaranteed rates uses the grey GAM (1) model. Supply and demand forecasting has two types of basic program and improvement program. According to predictions, the balance between supply and demand were analyzed, and the countermeasures of water resources sustainable utilization were proposed. The main research conclusions are:(1) Water source of Jinan City is composed of surface water, underground water and unconventional water. What the current situation of water supply structure is that surface water, groundwater, unconventional water accounted for the total water supply 56.17%,39.63% and 4.20%. Surface water is the main source of water supply in Jinan City.(2) The total water supply increased with the increasing of the planning year. The increase in water supply improvement scheme is compared to the basic scheme. In 2017,2020 and 2030 respectively increased 25752.0 cubic meters,36277.5 cubic meters and 62237.5 cubic meters. It can be seen that the increase of the available water supply can be realized by increasing the input of the water supply technology and the new construction, renovation and expansion of the water supply project.(3) The total water demand increased with the increasing of the planning year. Water demand improvement plan is less than the basic scheme of water demand. In 2017,2020 and 2030 respectively reduced by 9780.4 cubic meters,13629.1 cubic meters and 22733.6 cubic meters under the 50% guarantee rate. In 2017,2020 and 2030 respectively reduced by 10261.1 cubic meters,14277.4 cubic meters and 24406.5 cubic meters under the 75%(95%) guarantee rate. So visible strengthening water management can effectively reduce water demand.(4) The supply and demand gap between the basic plan of water supply and water demand is the largest and the maximum water shortage rate is 50.0%. The supply and demand gap between the improvement plan of water supply and water demand is the least and the minimum water shortage rate is 1.6%. Based on the above, in order to ease the contradiction between supply and demand of water resources in Jinan City, priority to the implementation of the water supply and water demand improvement scheme.(5) Countermeasures of sustainable utilization of water resources are put forward, such as to build sponge cities, construction drought emergency backup water source, strengthen the implementation of the water supply and water demand improvement program.