| In the past decades, water demands have emerged a rising tendency due to patterns of economic development, changes of climate and pressures of human population; while available water resources have shrunk in response to water pollution and ineffective usages. Thus, water crisis corresponding to environmental issue has become a critical factor in the global. Particular in an arid region such as Kaidu-kongque River Basin, conflict between water demand and supply has become an obstacle to the development of social and economy. Therefore, more effective works on water resources utilization and management (e.g., market-based approach) are required with considerations of food safety, social-economical development and sustainable environment. However, the water resources planning system (concluding water resources allocation and water right trading) is a complex system concluding various uncertainties influenced by social, economic and environmental factors. In that case, how to characterize uncertain factors and their interactions existing in the water resources system and process of planning, and how to reflect these abstracted relations are keys to optimize water allocations for water managers. Therefore, this paper would focus on the identification of water resources system, uncertainty analysis and complex integration in a water resources planning system. A series of uncertain planning methods and models would be developed for water resources planning (with trading scheme):(1) an interval two-stage stochastic programming (ITSP) for planning watershed water right trading has been developed, which is applied to Kaidu-kongque River Basin. Based on analysis of complexities and uncertainties in a water resource system, ITSP has been proposed to tackle uncertainties expressed as interval parameters and random variables. Through various policy scenarios setting and analyzing, water transaction and allocations under various policies are obtained. (2) an inexact credibility-constrained programming (TICP) method has proposed for analyzing water right trading and efficiency of trading policy TICP can tackle multiple uncertainties presented as random variables, interval parameters and fuzzy sets in a water trading system. The results under different trading polices (e.g., water right and trading ratio) corresponding to risk-violations levels are obtained and analyzed, which can support the water managers adjusting water polices with incensement of water demands. (3) an two-stage credibility-constrained programming with Hurwicz criterion (TCP-CH) has developed for planning water resources management. TCP-CH can tackle subjective and objective uncertainties based on risk preference option (Hurwicz criterion). Support vector machine (SVR) is used for predicting water demands. The method is beneficial to quantize risks for decision makers to obtain the decision with moderate degree of risk. (4) a dual interval two-stage programming (DTSP) method in the system of water right trading has been developed. The advantage of the method is using double fuzzy expression to tackle dual uncertainties. Meanwhile, the model coupling sewage treatment capacity, transaction costs and other factors in decision process is helpful for reflecting the efficiency of water rights trading. Moreover, non-and restricted trading policies are analyzed to support decision alternatives. (5) a joint-probabilistic interval multistage programming (JIMP) method is proposed for planning water resources as well as its application to building water market/trading mechanism for supporting the regional sustainability of the Kaidu-kongque River Basin. The JIMP can tackle random variables in left-and right-hand-side of constraints in a multi-stage context. Monte Carlo simulation technique (MC) is used to evaluate the probability distributions of trading ratio. A variety of results can excavate the relationships among sensitive factors such as trading ratio, recycling ratio, trading cost and water availability level in a water trading system.This paper would not only embody the water rights trading system into the water resources management model. Uncertainty and complexity in a water trading system can be analyzed to reveal the effects of water trading. Meanwhile, Hurwicz theory is introduced into water resources management to improve the traditional reliability of fuzzy programming, where decision makers’risk preference are considered into water planning to obtain appropriate levels of risk. A hybrid interval-stochastic-fuzzy optimization planning method is used for water resources allocation under uncertainty in Kaidu-kongque River Basin, which can resolve complex relationship and interaction mechanism between economic-social development, population growth and water demand to provide scientific and decision supports for water managers. This paper has focused on analyzing uncertainties and their interactions due to human activities and environment changes. The results can help improving the stability and quantity of the water resources management; meanwhile reducing the risk of decision-making. The proposed mixed uncertain programming can promote capacities of planning and resolving problems in basin, which would support sustainable development of water resources management. |
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