| Water issue is a fateful issue to social stability and development in all ages and it is an important constituent part of adhering to sustainable development to properly handle the relationship of exploration and utilization of water resources with social and economic development and ecological environment protection. As the urbanization of population and the industrialization of economy, the water use of cities and industries will greatly increase, which will certainly seize the water resources for use in agriculture. Aiming at the conflict between its economic development and water resources utilization, this study conducted a prediction and evaluation on the water resources of Sanhuhe Irrigation Area of Inner Mongolia Hetao Irrigation District under various alternatives, and , based on the results, reasonably adjusted the development scale of its industry within the coming 15 years to make its development planning more scientifically sound.As the measurement of geological data is very costly, research work in reality often encounters shortage of geological data. This study attempted to apply the theory of geostatistics to simulate and predict the structure of aquifer and its permeability coefficient. With less geological data, the stratum status of study area was figured out using geostatistics and the results are in good agreement with the observed data of the geological structure and the aquifer distribution of the study area. It found a solution to the difficult problem of shortage of geological data and is of significance to solving practical problems. Lack of parameters and difficulty in processing huge amount of data are common problems in the use of Visual–MODFLOW. The study estimated the permeability coefficient of the study area using geostatistics to provide reliable parameters for Visual–MODFLOW and at the same time pre-processed the basis data of the study area using GeoMedia with strong spatial data processing capability to provide data source for Visual–MODFLOW. These have further increased the accuracy of prediction results of Visual–MODFLOW.According to the detailed survey of current water resources, the water resources balance results further verified the application reliability of Visual MODFLOW in the study area and ensure the authenticity of prediction and evaluation results obtained by using Visual MODFLOW The prediction and evaluation results show that, for the short term exploration alternative, the total groundwater recharge of the study area will decrease by 551.68×104m3 and the groundwater table will fall down by 0.5～2.0m by 2010 compared with the current year; for the medium term exploration alternative, the total groundwater recharge of the study area will decrease by 2308.1×104m3 and the groundwater table will fall down by 0.5～2.5m by 2015 compared with the current year; ; for the long term exploration alternative, the total groundwater recharge of the study area will decrease by 3666.051×104m3 and the groundwater table will fall down by 0.5～3.0m by 2020 compared with the current year;It is concluded that the development of industry of the study area will mainly use surface water and thus will seize a part of irrigation water. The decrease of groundwater recharge by irrigation infiltration due to the reduction of surface water for irrigation as well as the exploration of groundwater will directly result in the reduction of groundwater and falldown of the groundwater table of the study area. Irrigation infiltration is an important constituent part of groundwater resources of the study area. With a maximum falldown of 3m in 2020, the groundwater table of the study area will be close to the lowest water table required by ecology. The irrigation water diversion of the study area from the Yellow River should by no means be less than 6000×104m3, otherwise, the trend of groundwater reduction and continuous falldown of groundwater table will take place in the the study area and endanger the security of its ecological environment.
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