Theory Of Interbasin Water Transfer And Stochastic Water Allocation Model Study

Interbasin water transfer (IWT) was important way to deal with water resources spatial allocation unadapted. IWT was complex and high dimensional system problem. Up till now, the theory of IWT was imperfect. The paper focus on South-North water transfer western route (SNWTWR) planning, making further study of water shortage, water transfer and water allocation. It presented a new approaching to planning, designing and managements IWT. The main research content and results are as follows:(1) Water shortage classification and decision tree models were presented. Further more, the matrix of probability change water shortage situation was deduced. It was been used to prediction of node's water shortage situation. The quantity and located water shortage were been calculated. The research expands using of classification model.(2) Based on the time series theory, Yellow River node's hydrology water shortage situation series stationary was been proved. Further more, n steps probability change matrix water shortage situation was also deduced. It was successful predicted node's further hydrology water shortage situations.(3) Limited water transfer ability of Yellow River main channel was considered. Only few attempts have so far been made at water transfer ability of Yellow River. It was important to SNWTWR planning. Under these limited, the maximal water quantity of SNWTWR's was calculated.(4) Poisson process was been used to estimated SNWTWR's bring probability to bear operation. It was useful to support the SNWTWR project decision.(5) The stochastic water allocation model also been presented. It was only partly using in water allocation, but it first imply the martingales process in solving stochastic model. It was a new approaching in stochastic model.(6) Sequence Operation Theory was been used to choice quantity of water transfer of SNWTWR. It was been deduced under multiprocessing of stochastic. It was given a theory support for choice quantity of water transfer of SNWTWR.(7) The paper develops a new water allocation model approach that three variables take into consideration. The traditional model only can consider the one variable that is water quantity. It was a breakthrough of water allocation model. In larger scale catchments, water users scatter different position. These are runoff join the main channel along with river. These kinds of situation makes one dimension model can not be used. The new water allocation model was presented. The model based on the Multidimensional Scaling (MDS) which a nonparametric technique is used. It was imply spatial reconstruction to map the high dimension coordinate to the 2D or 3D. So that, MDS water allocation model can introduced position coordinates to represent scatter uses, node runoff to represent water quantity that be distributed and probability to represent the node water requirement. A sample have eight node Yellow River water allocation was presented. The calculated outcome show that it was good fitting with the real situation.