| Based on three water resources problem of the Yellow River basin, put forward such three adjustment means as the lack of water resources , water disaster and environment adjustment. Combined with the nation 973 emphases study programming item, according to the basic study mission of resolving the lack of water resources in the Yellow River, this paper is consist of three parts: forecasting of water requirement study on revival critical theory and distribution project of water resources. Thereinto forecasting of water requirement is the datum basic and critical condition of multi-dimension critical adjustment model; revival and critical cybernetics of water resources is its theory gist; distribution project of water resources is basic gist of scientific and rational distribution in every province. So the research has higher theory and practice value, the main conclusions are shown as follows(1) According to analyze anciently means of water requirement forecasting, firstly combined with inherit arithmetic and NN to forecast water requirement, built inherit nerve network water requirement forecasting model in the Yellow River basin. Aim at BP arithmetic shortcoming of tend plunging local minimum value, applied amelioration inherit arithmetic in taking object as the approach of searching information to overcome local convergence of NN. Not only acquired better forecasting results but also enriched theory and means of water requirement forecasting.(2) The forecasting results are: in the normal runoff year of the Yellow River basin, lack of water 12*10 8 m3 in 2005, lack of water 63*10 8 m3 in 2010, lack of water 103*10 8 m3 in 2020, lack of water 127*10 8 m3 in 2030. Because of lack of environment historical datum so straightly applied the results of study on importance problem and countermeasure in the Yellow River. In the future four level years, the problem of water shortage of the Yellow River is very severity, only followed the nature law of water resources formation and revival, controlled water resources using and distribution,radically revolved the problem of water shortage in the Yellow River. (3) Started with discussing revival meaning of water resources, analyzed differ revival characteristic, revival rate and revival period of water resources, and multi-dimension space basic theory of water resources. Put forward new cognition about water resources meaning, water resources bearing capacity and its rational distribution.(4) For the first time introduced JieKe theory in water resources system, analyzed character parameter of water resources system JieKe, included opening degree, exchange rate, thickness and magnitude. Established importance theory foundation for quantify research of water resources system perimeter control.(5) By introducing cybernetics into water resource research, critical cybernation and mathematic representation are presented, at the premise of improving agricultural utilization water efficiency, effective method of agricultural utilization water control is used, which provide scientific ground for rational distribution of Yellow River water.(6) The Yellow River present water resource distribution system is in fact administrative distribution means. It exists many problems, such as upstream and downstream projects belong to different department, which makes government commanding distribution water means difficultly put into effect; the number of water utilization increases and decreases with precipitation in the same rate, which is disadvantageous to water resource optimize distribution and rational utilization; government commanding distribution water does not introduce encourage and compensate mechanism. Water distribution method of establishing water right transfer and water market system are presented in theory combined with the fact of the Yellow River in this paper.(7) So far there is not universal model that possesses benefit distribution index and economy development in the poor area. Based on analyzing Yellow River water distrib...
|
PDF Full Text Request