Research On The Influencing Factors Of Intra Industry Trade Of Industrial Manufactured Goods Between China And ASEAN From The Perspective Of Spatial Effects

According to the principles of spatial econometrics,there is a spatial effect of mutual influence between economic and trade activities between regions,that is,changes in imports and exports between a country and its trading partners will affect its imports and exports to other trading partners.China and ASEAN both belong to the Asian region,and industrial manufactured goods are the main commodities in bilateral trade.They are greatly influenced by factors such as capital,market,and geography,and may have some spatial correlation.And intra industry trade involves the regional division of labor among trade parties,which is an important field of China ASEAN economic and trade exchanges.Therefore,exploring the influencing factors and spatial effects of intra industry trade in industrial manufactured goods between China and ASEAN countries has important theoretical and practical significance for further deepening the regional international division of labor in various industries of industrial manufactured goods,promoting deep cooperation between countries,and increasing economic integration effects.Firstly,this article reviews the current status of bilateral trade and intra industry trade between China and ASEAN in industrial manufactured goods.It is found that the overall intra industry trade of industrial manufactured goods between China and Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,and Vietnam is dominated by intra industry trade,and the intra industry trade development between China and ASEAN countries shows similar trends,which may have spatial dependence.Secondly,the spatial econometric model is used to empirically test the panel data of China and Indonesia,Malaysia,the Philippines,Singapore,Thailand,and Vietnam from 1992 to 2021,and explore whether the factors affecting intra industry trade in China ASEAN industrial manufactures have spillover effects in spatial dimensions.The empirical results show that: first,the global Moran index of the G-L index of intra industry trade in China ASEAN industrial manufactures is significantly greater than 0,The development of intra industry trade in manufactured goods between China and ASEAN countries shows a clustering trend in spatial dimensions;Secondly,the spatial Durbin model regression results indicate that different explanatory variables have a significant differential impact on intra industry trade of different industrial manufactured goods: foreign direct investment has a significant positive effect on capital and technology intensive industrial manufactured goods(SITC 5+7)trade,market size differences have a significant negative effect on SITC 7,and trade openness has a significant positive effect on SITC 5,Geographical distance has a significant negative impact on labor-intensive industrial finished products(SITC 6+8);Thirdly,there is a significant spatial spillover effect on various variables that affect the intra industry trade of industrial manufactured goods between China and ASEAN.The increase in foreign direct investment from neighboring countries has a negative spatial spillover effect on the intra industry trade of SITC 8 industrial manufactured goods in the host country,which is called spatial crowding out effect.The increase in trade openness and geographical distance between neighboring countries will promote the development of intra industry trade of industrial manufactured goods in the host country,which is called positive spatial spillover effect,The per capita income gap has a negative spatial spillover effect on intra industry trade in capital and technology intensive industrial manufactured goods.Finally,this paper tests the robustness of the inverse metric space weight matrix and the economic geography nested space weight matrix.The regression results of the spatial Durbin model have no significant coefficient changes,and the conclusion is still valid.Finally,based on the differential impact and spatial spillover effects of different variables on various manufacturing subsectors,this article proposes the following policy recommendations:(1)Implement diversified trade development strategies for different categories of industrial manufactured goods;(2)Pay attention to spatial spillover effects and establish a regional synergy mechanism between China and ASEAN;(3)Strengthen spatial agglomeration and deepen regional economic integration;(4)Develop product differentiation strategy to improve the overall product competitiveness;(5)Utilize China ASEAN Free Trade Area 3.0 to deepen spatial cooperation in the manufacturing industry.The aim is to encourage China and ASEAN countries to make policy improvements in the construction of free trade zones,product technology innovation,trade spatial effects,and foreign investment cooperation,in order to achieve deeper dynamic regional integration and actively promote new development in the manufacturing industry.