Research On Decision-making Of PPP Pension Project Investment Based On The Real Option

The need for building and operating pension projects is growing as the population ages.In order to attract social capital to participate in the project’s investment and promote the sustainable development of the project’s overall construction and operation,Public-Private Partnership mode has been introduced into the investment,construction and operation of pension projects.Social capital needs to make accurate investment decisions for PPP pension projects,and the first issue to be resolved is assessing the investment value of PPP pension projects accurately and scientifically.In order to give a reasonable and effective reference for the investment decision of PPP pension projects,this study employed the real options approach to assess the investment value of PPP pension projects.(1)The definition,attribute features,and investment characteristics of PPP pension projects were initially presented in this research,followed by a brief analysis of current investment decision-making theories and their shortcomings.On this basis,the real options theory was introduced in investment decision-making methodology,and the applicability of the real option theory in investment decision-making for PPP pension projects was analyzed.(2)Based on real options theory,different types of options under different investment strategies of PPP pension projects at each phase were analyzed,and the methods for calculating the exercise value of different types of options were presented.Based on the trigeminal tree option pricing model and the characteristics of phased and composite options of PPP pension projects,a phased composite option pricing model suitable for PPP pension projects is constructed,and the real option value brought by the investment flexibility of PPP pension projects is comprehensively evaluated.As for the determination of the parameters of the option pricing model,the Bayesian statistical inference method is used to estimate the volatility: according to the prior knowledge and observation data,the Markov Chain Monte Carlo(MCMC)simulation is used to sample the posterior distribution of the parameters,and the posterior mean of the obtained parameter is used as the volatility parameter estimation,so as to make the investment value calculation results more reasonable.(3)The Kaiyuan Phoenix Valley Elderly Care Project has been chosen for the case study.Using the model method described in this paper,the real options value and investment value of the project are analyzed,and the rationality and feasibility of the model are verified.In addition,a sensitivity analysis of the factors affecting the value of real options is conducted,and the result shows that the asset price is the most sensitive factor affecting the value of real options for the project.This paper constructs an investment decision-making model based on real options and applies it to PPP pension projects so as to provide certain theoretical support and method reference for the investment decision-making of such projects,with a view to promoting the sustainable development of China’s PPP pension project construction and operation.