Evaluation And Analysis Of Private Equity Investment Projects Based On Real Options

Science and technology is the first productivity,finance is the core of modern economy,as the two car of the wings,the bird of the wheel,must never be apart.In the background of China’s economy into the new normal,the development trend of financial technology,financial capital into science and technology enterprises is to promote the national economy by "factor driven,investment driven" to "innovation driven" the inevitable choice in the public venture,the highly innovative policies,China’s PE(private equity)industry ushered in the flourishing period of hitherto unknown,it not only to a certain extent,solve the financing difficulties of SMEs,financing your problem,but also provides many value-added services to help enterprises to speed up the establishment of a modern corporate governance system in the process of.In China,although the PE industry has been blowout in recent years,it is still in its infancy.It is urgent to improve and advance in the construction of theoretical system and practice.In order to play the role of PE to promote the economy of our country and to accelerate the process of the construction of our own industry,it is very urgent to choose the investment project scientifically and reasonably.In this paper,combined with a complete PE investment behavior includes stage,start-up stage,development stage and mature stage of seed,the starting point of each stage,PE institutions can expand,reduce or delay the investment characteristics of three kinds of choices and investment projects of multi stage and long period,and points out that the applicability of the traditional project evaluation in theory,we establish a multi-stage,multi state triple tree model,true to the investment project because the option value of uncertainty,so as to make a reasonable assessment of its true value.This article first through the literature review and related theories,the selection of a private equity fund and full participation in the successful listing of the Internet enterprise branch as an example,a comprehensive analysis of the branch was listed before the financial operation,development strategy and project financing situation,points out the project evaluation using the income method and market method are compared the shortcomings and defects of the case problems and proposed solution to the problem,and then construct the trinomial tree real option model and modified by the 6 year rate reduction from the market risk-free interest rates,according to the branch of the Internet software industry belongs to this characteristic by the use of 84 sets of software and services industry index to simulate the branch the asset volatility sigma,finally using the known amount of investment and real option model to calculate the tree branch of the real option value of project,the overall project The value is compared with the net cash flow results.The results show that the triple tree real option calculated project investment value of 549 million 160 thousand yuan,the net cash flow to calculate the project investment value of 387 million 830 thousand yuan,the net cash flow method is to underestimate the value of the investment,the reason is the option value NPV method ignores the project investment,the real option evaluation method is more suitable for private projects and this is conducive to enhancing the ability of China’s private sector project selection and evaluation of pricing,to promote rapid development of private equity industry.Finally,the shortcoming and future development direction of the real option model of the three-fork tree are prospected.