Analysis Of Influencing Factors And Prediction Of Grain Production In Yunnan Province

As the most basic requirement of people’s livelihood,food is the basis of human survival and development.It is especially important in emergencies,so the national level attaches great importance to food production.In order to respond to the national food security strategy and guarantee the food security of Yunnan Province,it is necessary to carry out in-depth analysis and prediction of the grain production in Yunnan province under the background of the strong support of the government,improve the grain production in Yunnan Province,promote the stable development of economy and society and the improvement of people’s living standards.In this regard,in order to improve the efficiency of grain planting in Yunnan Province,on the premise of reading domestic and foreign articles on influencing factors of grain production and output prediction,combined with the actual situation of Yunnan Province,this paper selects 12 years of statistical data from 2010 to 2021,selects 11 indicators for a comprehensive analysis,and points out the advantages and disadvantages of grain planting in Yunnan Province at the present stage.Then the data was imported into the relevant software,and the grey correlation method was adopted to calculate the correlation degree of each influencing factor before ranking.It was concluded that the correlation degree between the use of chemical fertilizer and the irrigated area and the grain output was very great,which was consistent with the reality.Therefore,it was necessary to continue to improve the irrigation facilities of farmland to improve the ability of disaster resistance and increase technological innovation.Since grey correlation analysis can only rank the size of influencing factors and cannot quantitatively analyze grain yield,11 indicators are screened.Then,C-D production function theory is applied to regression analysis of the screened indicators to obtain the contribution rates of these indicators,which is consistent with the results of grey correlation analysis,indicating the effectiveness of indicator selection.In order to ensure the current target of increasing grain production,GM(1,1)was made for the grey prediction of total production data for the 12 years from 2010 to 2021 to further master the future trend of grain increase in Yunnan Province.Finally,based on the experience accumulated by predecessors in this field,countermeasures and suggestions were put forward,such as strictly observing the red line of cultivated land,continuously strengthening the protection of agricultural resources and environment and green development,improving the level of soil improvement and fertilizer cultivation,and perfecting the irrigation facilities of cultivated land.