Research On Value-oriented Project Portfolio Risk Assessment

Under the current trend of deep integration of global economy and gradual expansion of enterprise scale,the traditional single project management island can no longer meet the value realization needs of enterprises.In order to realize the rapid development of enterprises,project portfolio management has become an important mode for project-oriented enterprises.However,there exist a series of risks in the process of realizing the project portfolio value.The risks interact with each other and weaken the realization effect of the project portfolio value,resulting in the failure of the realization of the expected value within the project portfolio,which affects the realization of the enterprise’s expected strategic goals.Therefore,the relationship between the project portfolio value and risk should be fully considered.Systematic and comprehensive analysis of project portfolio risk has become an urgent demand of enterprises under the trend of project-based management.Thus,this study explores the value-oriented project portfolio risk assessment and strategy response,which provides a reference for enterprises to efficiently manage the project portfolio risk and improve the project portfolio value.This study takes the portfolio risk-value system as the research object to study the portfolio risk assessment from the perspective of value.First,the elements of the value-oriented project portfolio risk assessment are identified.The value dimensions of the project portfolio are divided through the literature review method.The main and secondary project portfolio risks are determined through the fishbone diagram.The project portfolio risk index system is established by combining the literature review,which lays a foundation for constructing the value-oriented project portfolio risk assessment model.Secondly,the system dynamics is used to establish the causal loop diagram,the causes and uses tree analysis tool in the Vensim software is used to analyze the influence relationship between various factors in the model,and the global weight of each risk index is obtained through analytic network process.The system dynamics method is then used to establish a value-oriented project portfolio risk assessment model,determine the equation of the required parameters in the model.The process of model verification and the specific process of determining the key project portfolio risk is introduced,which provides methodological support for project portfolio risk assessment.Finally,the validity of the above model is verified through a case study.According to the results of sensitivity analysis,this study also proposes some risk response strategies.This study takes the project portfolio risk-value system as the main object,and uses system dynamics method to analyze and quantify the relationships among risks and the relationships between project portfolio value and project portfolio risk.On this basis,a value-oriented project portfolio risk assessment model is constructed.Managers can use this model to determine the key project portfolio risks and take corresponding strategy responses,which provides a new way and means for project portfolio risk management.