Research On Credit Risk Management Of Inclusive Small And Micro Enterprises

Under the current political and economic new normal,the development node of inclusive finance in China lies in the development of small and micro enterprises.However,small and micro enterprises have been plagued by problems such as small business scale,unstable development,and irregular management in the past,which has led to high credit risk,which has become a constraint for banks to develop small and micro enterprise credit business.How to scientifically predict the credit risk of small and micro enterprises is the key to the development of small and micro enterprise credit business.This article takes the inclusive finance business of J Bank Xi’an Branch as the starting point.By reviewing the existing research results at home and abroad,and elaborating on the relevant theories of inclusive finance,starting from the characteristics and financing status of small and micro enterprises in China,the current situation of J Bank Xi’an Branch’s inclusive loan business is studied and analyzed.By evaluating the existing credit business and risks,Obtain the current problems in the development of inclusive credit business at J Bank Xi’an Branch.In the empirical part of the article,we mainly analyze the important credit risks in small and micro credit business,and select small and micro enterprises with sufficient information in the database of J Bank Xi’an Branch as the research object.Combining with the characteristics of small and micro enterprises themselves,we select a logistic regression model to construct a credit risk assessment model for small and micro enterprises.In the selection of evaluation indicators for small and micro enterprises,the principle of selecting model variables was proposed,and an indicator system for analyzing credit default probability was constructed using financial and non-financial factors.After organizing and analyzing the data of small and micro enterprises of J Bank Xi’an Branch,a series of variables strongly related to credit risk were selected,including 14 financial information variables and 3 non-financial factor variables.Firstly,principal component analysis was conducted to reduce the dimensionality of financial factor variables,and then a binary logistic regression model was constructed.Through regression analysis,the main factors affecting credit default risk were identified,And tested the average marginal utility of variables and the strength of the model’s predictive ability.The research conclusion shows that debt paying ability,operating ability,profitability,and development and growth ability have a significant negative impact on default,while the proportion of equity will have a significant positive impact on default.Finally,the article proposes policy recommendations to strengthen the proportion of key factors,relax industry access standards,establish a comprehensive warning system,strengthen credit system construction,improve small and micro enterprise credit databases,and innovate credit products,in order to provide new ideas for promoting the steady development of inclusive small and micro enterprise credit.