Flow Distance、Gravity Model And Foreign Trade Potential Of China

At present,the situation in the post-epidemic era is turbulent,and China’s foreign trade is developing in twists and turns.As one of the important engines of China’s economic growth,foreign trade can strengthen international division of labor and cooperation,optimize resource allocation,and play a decisive role in stimulating GDP growth.After the the 20 th National Congress of the Communist Party of China,a new blueprint for China’s foreign trade development was gradually drawn up.Under this background,it is of great significance to study China’s foreign trade potential for building an international and domestic double-cycle pattern and promoting economic development.As a classic trade model,gravity model plays an important role in the process of trade forecasting.The traditional trade gravity model means that the bilateral trade volume between two countries is always proportional to their economic scale and inversely proportional to their distance because of the existence of logistics costs.At present,most scholars use physical distance to represent the trade distance between regions in the study of trade gravity model.However,the influence of physical distance cannot reflect the impact of globalization,and even ignores the multilateral resistance of trade.Therefore,scholars at home and abroad have been trying to find new variables to effectively measure trade distance instead of the original geographical distance to enter the gravity model in order to optimize the gravity model.Therefore,on the basis of previous studies,this thesis quantifies the effective trade distance-flow distance according to the multilateral trade path information and the structure of the trade flow network,so as to identify the hidden resistance information in the trade network data and solve the "globalization problem".There are abundant literatures on the study of foreign trade potential by gravity model,and many scholars have calculated the potential from the perspectives of regions and industries,but there are not many literatures on the prediction of China’s foreign trade potential by gravity model based on flow distance.This thesis conducts research from this perspective.In this thesis,firstly,the relevant literatures about gravity model,flow distance and foreign trade potential are studied,and the latest research results of the relationship between flow distance and gravity model and the relationship between gravity model and foreign trade potential are sorted out.Secondly,the current situation of China’s foreign trade is analyzed,and 50 major trading partners are selected to build a 50*50 complex trade network,each node represents a country or region.By introducing source nodes and sink nodes,the complex trade network is expanded into a flow network,and the variables that can effectively measure the bilateral trade distance are calculated accordingly.Then,the traditional geographical distance is replaced by the flow distance to enter the gravity model.Through comparative analysis,the advantages of the flow distance in measuring the trade distance are studied,that is,the disadvantages that the physical distance can not capture the impact of globalization and remain unchanged in the gravity model over time are overcome.And other representative factors are selected as explanatory variables,and an expanded trade gravity model is constructed to estimate the trade potential between China and its major trading partners,which provides mathematical support for deepening the trade development between China and its major trading partners.Finally,this thesis puts forward some suggestions to optimize the import and export trade of China’s manufacturing industry: optimizing the industrial structure of manufacturing industry and tapping the high-end market of product trade;Improve the support system and give full play to the advantages of the whole industry chain;Based on product characteristics,create brand effect of high-tech products in manufacturing industry;Improve infrastructure and shorten the distance of trade flow.