Research On The Causes And Evolution Of Supply Chain Financial Risks In A Complex Ecological Environmen

Supply chain finance provides an effective financial solution to solve the problem of "difficult and expensive financing" of small and medium-sized enterprises,and has become an important tool for financial services to the real economy.Since The State Council issued the first national policy on supply chain finance “the Guiding Opinions of The State Council on Actively Promoting Supply Chain Innovation and Application” in 2017,domestic supply chain finance has entered a fast track of development.With the development of supply chain finance,the participants gradually become diversified,the business becomes more complicated,and the product forms are diversified,which leads to the complexity of risks and risk causes.In recent years,risk events related to supply chain finance occurred frequently,exposing the absence of risk management and control of supply chain finance.Therefore,based on the analysis of the supply chain finance ecological system composition,literature research and case analysis,this study systematically constructed the system of cause variables of risk,and constructed the supply chain finance risk evolution model through system dynamics,and then explored the key causes and evolution law through simulation analysis,so as to provide more targeted reference basis and suggestions for the supply chain finance risk management and control.First of all,studies related to supply chain finance risks are summarized,including those related to risk causes,risk types,risk assessment and risk prevention.Combined with supply chain finance theory,financial ecological theory and supply chain management theory,the paper analyzed the composition of supply chain finance ecological system,including three dimensions of "subject-object-environment".Based on the composition of ecological system,through the analysis of business risk points in real cases,grasped the risk characteristics and risk causes of different subjects and environments.Secondly,combined with the above analysis of risk causes and literature index statistics,the system of supply chain finance risk induced variables is systematically constructed from the perspective of "four main subjects and five environments",and the evolution model of supply chain finance risk is constructed by using VENSIM.Then,the operating trend of the system and key factors are mastered through multi-factor simulation analysis and sensitivity analysis.And through analysis,it is found that the fintech level of financial institutions,personnel quality level and the intensity of scientific research fund investment of logistics enterprises,the pledge price index,the financial performance and corporate governance level of enterprises,quality of financial information disclosure and the informatization level of supply chain are the key factors affecting the risk of Supply Chain Finance.Finally,in order to provide reference basis and suggestions for risk management and control of Supply Chain Finance to promote supply chain finance to better serve the real economy,combined with simulation analysis and cases analysis,risk control suggestions are put forward based on four aspects: enterprise,financial institution,supervision and technology application.