Research On Early Warning And Influencing Factors Of Corporate Bond Defaults In The Real Estate Industr

After more than 20 years of development,the real estate industry has continuously improved and standardized,and has become one of the fundamental,pillar,and strategic products in China’s economic development.However,due to the particularity of its business nature,there are many risks that cannot be ignored.Especially in recent years,real estate companies have increased their bond financing efforts,resulting in increased capital operation risks and frequent bond defaults.Therefore,conducting research on the influencing factors of real estate bond default and using historical data to conduct early warning research on default is conducive to promoting the stable and healthy development of the corporate bond market in the real estate industry,both in theoretical and practical significance,and promoting the stable and healthy operation of the real economy of real estate enterprises.This article takes a total of 20 real estate issuers who have experienced corporate bond defaults from 2018 to 2022 as the research object,and selects 80 real estate companies that have not experienced bond defaults as a control group in a 1:4 ratio.When analyzing the influencing factors,this article summarizes the operational risks that real estate companies often exhibit when they encounter bond defaults through the analysis of relevant literature and practical cases,and refers to relevant literature to draw appropriate methods for measuring each factor and establish corresponding indicators.Then,using the fuzzy set qualitative comparative analysis method(fs QCA),we explore the impact of various factors on the occurrence of default by the subject.Based on the analysis of influencing factors,and according to scholars’ research,appropriate financial indicators are selected as explanatory variables,and together with non-financial indicators,an indicator system for constructing a default early warning model is formed.Finally,a default early warning model is constructed using a logistic regression model.In addition,this article uses the extreme gradient enhancement model(XGBoost model)to predict the probability of bond default in the sample,and compares the prediction effect with the logistic regression model.The main conclusions reached are as follows:(1)For real estate enterprises of different scales,the influencing factors vary in different ways.(2)The constructed early warning model includes 7 indicators such as return on net assets,sales gross profit margin,and liquidity ratio.The overall prediction accuracy is 92%.The reliability of model classification is strong.(3)When using the model to predict default,the Logistic model has a better prediction effect than the XGBoost model.The research in this article has certain reference significance for understanding and identifying the risk of bond default in real estate enterprises,and this article provides suggestions for the management of real estate enterprises and investment decisions of investors.Real estate enterprises should strengthen internal control,improve management levels,rationalize liabilities,and avoid blind investment.When making investment decisions,investors should pay more attention to the internal debt situation and governance level of the enterprise to control investment risks.