Research On Influencing Factors And Early Warning Model Of Default Of Corporate Credit Bonds In China

At present,China’s bond market is developing rapidly.Until 2014,"rigid cashing"has always been an unbreakable hidden rule in China’s bond market.In March 2014,the"11 super day debt" was unable to be cashed on schedule,which constituted the first substantial default of bonds in China’s bond market.Under the influence of various factors,the amount and number of bond defaults in China increased year by year from 2014 to 2021,with explosive growth in 2018.A large number of corporate credit bonds defaulted.It has greatly damaged the interests of investors and affected the establishment of China’s social credit system.Under the background that bond default has become the new normal,it is of great significance to study the influencing factors and early warning models of corporate credit bonds in China.Firstly,this paper introduces the current situation of default of corporate credit bonds in China,and analyzes the general factors of default,including external factors and internal factors,which are divided into non-financial factors and financial factors.Secondly,select the quantitative model for research design,and select samples for empirical analysis.Select KMV model,Logistic model and mixed KMV-Logistic model,take the listed companies with bond default as the default group,the normal listed companies as the control group,use the quantifiable financial factors such as sample financial indicators as independent variables,combined with the market-oriented index of default distance calculated by KMV model,and conduct empirical research through each model,After the results are obtained,KMV-Logistic model is compared with KMV model and Logistic model,the effectiveness of the model is compared and analyzed,and the factors affecting the default of corporate credit bonds are analyzed.Finally,the research conclusions and shortcomings are given.After research and analysis,according to the calculation results of KMV-Logistic model and the relative comparison with KMV model and Logistic model,it can be seen that the calculation results of KMV model and Logistic model are basically consistent with the actual situation in the identification of default risk,and can basically better identify the default risk of bonds.However,KMV model has some limitations.The goodness of fit of Logistic model and the discrimination accuracy of bond default are lower than KMVLogistic model.It shows that KMV-Logistic model is more effective than KMV model and Logistic model in the identification of bond default risk.The rate of return on total assets,inventory turnover and default distance are important factors affecting the default of corporate credit bonds.